Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Charts 8-20: Shot at 2000?

More of the low-volume, overnight gap-up action.  The channel we're in allows for a shot at SPX 2000 this Friday.  Sure, why the hell not.  The upper Bollinger on the daily SPX is up there, with the lower sitting back at 1900.

SPX channel
 
From a "Three Peaks and a Domed House" perspective, the question has been for a while now, where is the point #22, the one that precedes the run-up to #23, the final top?

Was it 1737 SPX?  Or 1814?  It might very well be the 1904 low we set the week before last.  That would set us up for a megaphone structure up here that would finish with a kissback off the 1985 level going into September FOMC.

I'm thinking that the September FOMC is the point when the market finally gets it through its thick skull that the QE experiment is wrapping up. 

Megaphone top, please


And here's a black bear I spotted out in Olympic NP last week.




1 comment:

christiangustafson said...

Or ... if this week and Jackson Hole doesn't do it, the same channel projects out to SPX 2024 by EOM August. Lotsa bearish wedge trendlines etc come together on about that point.

That is an interesting level b/c a sheer drop from there points precisely to SPX 1074 by the November 20 Bradley turn.

One principle of this perma-bear is that when the real sell-off finally starts, it will be much more severe and truly violent than anyone else imagines.

Each downleg of the Jaws of Death since the 2000 highs is increasingly steep and vicious. I expect that this cycle will quickly go no-bid and astound and frighten even the most bearish observers.