Monday, July 21, 2014

Charts 07-21 a.m.: Outlook unchanged

Haven't posted in a while, because my analysis is unchanged.  I still want to see SPX 1925 this week for point "24" on the green 3PDH, and then a rally into July FOMC and the next GDP number.

Good luck to all (bears).  I sketched this at EOD Friday.

SPX 07-18


Bicycle said...

By the end of the month (yes the next 9 days) *something* is going to happen and we are going to throw a big red candle in on the DOW on its way down to 14k.


Bicycle said...

Here we also have crude oil price in Russian RUB:


Bicycle said...

And also in EUR... they are toast before the end of 2014.


Bicycle said...

Of course we should also show crude in Chinese Yuan:

That train has already left the station.... Chinese will be bidding up oil now and will crowd out everyone else. Have I told you how nice of cars Chinese college student interns are buying these days? It is like fashion accessories to them. Almost all SUV's too

Bicycle said...

And last but not least the USD, I don't know what Steve in Virgina is waiting for. He needs to be up on the soap box calling for our damnation every single minute of every hour!!

T.Berry said...

dropping 62 in 2 days,,,,just don't see it happening. the floor i believe going forward is s&p's 1900 if not definitely 1800 as an absolute low forward. never felt better about 2,200 than now. nothing on horizon to stop this bull market. good luck to bears, they will need plenty when dow hits 20k next year

T.Berry said...

bicycle you actually think dow would ever again hit 14k? really? my low target (worst case) is dow 15,900. i see it going to 20,000 early to mid 2015. what possibly could keep it from going there? stopping qe will only accelerate the move up.

Bicycle said...

We will see sub-6k Dow before 20k.

An Ebola outbreak in the 8th-largest oil exporting nation in the world (Nigeria) will certainly set us on our way.

Permabear Doomster said...

So..err...we're still going up...

and you're still calling relentless tops.

Its like hardly anyone has learnt anything since last summer.

A whole year....400pts higher..and still...the same thing.

Seriously.... how about it?

pb said...

Hmmmm -- ahhh Semiconductors are not looking too healthy at the moment.
FOMC meets next week and QE goes to 25 Billion. Rapidly approaching the point of diminishing returns.

I'm looking for a deep correction followed by a strong forth quarter rally then this pig rolls over until they start another form of QE.

The end is near!!!

Phat Repat said...

Meh. Market goes up, market goes down. I hope you are making money on both ends.

Bicycle said...

Seems like we are setting up a potentially glorious short opportunity before the Q2 GDP tomorrow.

Historical events that coincide with July 30, 2014:

- 762 – Baghdad is founded by caliph Al-Mansur.
- 1619 – In Jamestown, Virginia, the first representative assembly in the Americas, the House of Burgesses, convenes for the first time.
- 1733 – The first Masonic Grand Lodge in the future United States is constituted in Massachusetts.
- 1956 – A joint resolution of the U.S. Congress is signed by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, authorizing In God we trust as the U.S. national motto.
- 1965 – U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson signs the Social Security Act of 1965 into law, establishing Medicare and Medicaid.
- 1971 – Apollo program: Apollo 15 Mission – David Scott and James Irwin on the Apollo Lunar Module module Falcon land on the Moon with the first Lunar Rover.
- 1974 – Watergate scandal: U.S. President Richard Nixon releases subpoenaed White House recordings after being ordered to do so by the Supreme Court of the United States.
- 1975 – Jimmy Hoffa disappears from the parking lot of the Machus Red Fox restaurant in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit, at about 2:30 p.m. He is never seen or heard from again, and will be declared legally dead on this date in 1982.
- 1980 – Israel's Knesset passes the Jerusalem Law
- 1863 – Birth of Henry Ford, American businessman, founded the Ford Motor Company (d. 1947)