Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Martin Armstrong's 2015.75 date

I just wanted to note now that Martin Armstrong's 2015.75 super-duper-cycle date is the start of the hyperinflation phase of the $USD.

From [gee, any day now] until then, we get the deflationary downdraft and unwind of Asia and U.S. equities, the big to safety that gets the 10Y Treasury Note under 1% yield.

Once equities hit the lower trendline of the "Jaws of Death" (McHugh), around SPX 560 next summer, yields will bottom and the debt-based currencies will melt away.

Equities first, then bonds, including those zero-coupon paper bills in your pocket.

2015.75 sounds about right.

[edit: LOL I always confuse this guy with Martin Anderson, the Reagan-era economist]  duhhh


Bicycle said...

That is September 30, 2015. I guess that it matters where you will measure the time from, but somewhere, it will be 6pm in the evening.



28 September 2015 is a full moon.

28 September 2015 is also a TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE that will be visible throughout almost the whole world.

I tend to think it will be a cycle high for equities. We'll be somewhere around 2200 on the S&P, and ready to begin a 90% collapse in equity valuation and volume. The US shale revolution will be hitting its zenith. There will be desperate struggles over energy in Asia and Europe.

Christian Gustafson said...

All I care about is whether Jim Kunstler can get the 4th volume of World Made By Hand out before things start going fat-tailed all over everywhere.

It will take forever for it to make it out to the West Coast by oral tradition.

Bicycle said...

Only a 16% rally from a 2200's top now. Definitely we are going up to ping that top trendline from the Nixon Shock, on the quarterlies. It's going to happen.

The Big One is only 12-18 months away.

Alex Red said...

Uh Bicycle, I think Martin Anderson's date is supposed to be a low rather than high.

Bicycle said...

Well I haven't read any Martin Anderson for years, but what I did read I recall he said his dates had nothing to do with index highs or lows, but rather sentiment (market or political)

So the date would be a "low" for something, but not necessarily equities. It could be a low for a currency (the dollar) corresponding to a high in equities. Or something else.

Personally, I think Martin Anderson is a complete nutjob, and he's been wrong (a lot).

Permabear Doomster said...

re: 560.

You might be 2000pts under the late 2015 peak.

Seriously, have not the last few days again been a reminder of what the bears face?

Hell, I tried, but ended up getting kicked today at the key sp'1883 threshold.

The notion of sp'500s, just seems crazy.

T.Berry said...

nice work bicycle- 2200 for sure. cant see sub 1700 for a long while and sub 1000 never possibly, rules out 560 cg : ). so much for 1636 in april

Christian Gustafson said...

Go back to the long-term charts and take a good look at 2011. 1074 was a dramatic low, but one question that has lingered with me for a long time is, was 2011 a triangle?

If 2011 was a B-wave triangle, then it arguably completed at 1202 SPX, correcting "A" by .236.

This gives us ABC like so:

A: 666 -> 1370, 704 pts
B: 1370 -> 1202, .236 correction
C: 1202 + 704? = 1906, for A ~ C

The current rally channel would allow for 1906 early Thursday.

Bicycle said...

Oh we are absolutely going sub-1000.

We're also not going to see 2560. I doubt we will ever see over a 2300 spike high on the quarterlies. It would break patterns that have been baked into the charts for almost 45 years now.

2200's, then comes a crushing 5-6 year long bear that probably takes us to the 400's. There may or may not be one final splat to about 210.

After that, who knows. By 2020 most of Europe will be ready to hand themselves over to USSR-2 in exchange for some natural gas to heat their homes.

The United States will be isolated, with not enough energy to stage a cross-continent military campaign the size of which to hold back Vlad. Only dollar oil hegemony has been enough to hold back the czars from taking their revenge for WWII out on the peoples of Europe. We'll be reduced to some kind of greasy arms dealer, or backhanded war financier, nervously mocked by Europe and Japan in an effort to goad us to conflict.

China will have kneecapped Japan by then. While Russia is busy in Europe, China begins staging 100 million Chinese soldiers for a resource conflict with Vlad. Long arms-length partners with the Russians, China begins a move on Siberian natural resources.