Sunday, March 9, 2014

Charts 03-07: Bearish

I think the sum total of grim reality will start to weigh on the equity markets, and we will start chopping our way down through levels of support.  Copper put in a pin under $3 tonight because China's going off the rails.  /ES will catch up.

By the way, 3/6 (+-2 days) was one of McHugh's "phi mate" turn dates.  I don't mention these turn dates here until after they have passed.  His newsletter is dirt-cheap right now; having it lets you know about these in advance, if they matter to you.

There is a Bradley coming the weekend of 3/22; I'd like to see us remain bearish through March opex.

SPX 03-07

SPX 03-07 20D


Christian Gustafson said...

Exited shorts (green) this morning once it was clear we weren't seeing any follow-through on this decline.

Look back @ the original leg up from the June, 2013, lows. It ran for 29 days.

Simple time equivalence would take us from the Feb 5th lows all the way until the 3/19 FOMC. This suggests that nothing else matters except the next taper decision.

The tape may be tedious until then.

Permabear Doomster said...

Well, your exit this morning, would make for a fortunate exit.

I can't be trying to trade this minor retraces though, I got next to zero tolerance for it still.

I'm more than content until next Wednesday afternoon.

Best re-short probably 1895/1905..somewhere around there.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes, PD. Here in the America we have this thing called "Spidey sense", after one of our national heroes, the great Spider-Man.

29 trading days from the Feb 5th low is actually Tuesday, 3/18. I've got an upper trendline (easy enough to see it) that gets to 1900 on the SPX about then.

Sit and wait. Look at the tape today, classic buy-the-dip shape, but not for much. 23 handles just is not worth the worry from here; better to sit, wait, and count waves where we can.

See the daily Bollingers coming in on VIX and UVXY? It would be nice to see them tighten up and then explode in a big move. UVXY's not even worth shorting from here.

T.Berry said...

what's the latest degree of confidence s&p's going to your target 1636 in early april? from the latest tape i can't imagine it being very high. no? thx