Sunday, January 26, 2014

Charts 01-24

Dropped the ending-diagonal idea and went with a traditional 5-wave series for the leg up from the August lows (SPX 1627).  This may at last be the "one last fakeout" drop before the final high that reader Bryan for which has been patiently waiting.

Looking for a bottom on Tuesday around 1768, and a final rally over the next two weeks to 1870.  I've been thinking about long-term charts lately, and maybe I'll actually have something interesting to post later this week.

SPX 01-24

SPX 01-24 6M


Bryan Franco said...

Yes. Sticking with one more closing high before the next 20% + drop. Unfortunately, the rule allows for up to a 20% drop outright, so obviously this is a very long term signal. The rule again: for a 20% + drop, the sequence of the last three "corrections" leading up to a new closing all-time high must NOT be 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5%. Assuming we don't get this sequence again as we work our way back up from a low, the new high becomes an eligible long term top.

T.Berry said...

thx for update CG,. decided i'm going to exit half longs at your 1870 target or maybe just before. (don't want to get greedy). i'll reenter that position at your 1625 march target.

Permabear Doomster said...


this remains such a twisted market.

Bears had better break <1765..or it'll bode for the original count, with one final high into the late spring.

Next week or two gonna be real important. Gods help us all.

Bryan Franco said...

Probably finishing up 5 of C of whatever this 'correction' is. My question for now is does the 5 extend down to the 1725s or halt in the 1760s? Probably would have to wait for a key reversal day to find out. Me thinks too dangerous to anticipate any kind of swing trade.

T.Berry said...

BF--1760 would make for a nice bottom (soon), then to CG's 1870 :) then we can head to CG's 1625 :)

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey, T. Berry -- make that CG's 1646, but we have got to make it up to 1870 first.

While out hiking last weekend, I was struck with an awesome vision of market collapse.

It hinges on this Spring's tape goes, and particularly on the 7/30 FOMC.

I'll mock it up and post it as one of those tinfoil "FWIW charts".