Sunday, November 3, 2013

Charts 11-01: A bearish chart

I managed a dayhike on Saturday, headed right into a fall cold front here in western WA.

Here's what greeted me on my windshield when I returned to my car:

"Let yourself out"

Needless to say, it was a wet hike, a quick run up to the high country and back down to safety before winter sets in.  I put up 15 miles or so, in constant rain or snow.  I had planned to go another 7 mi farther, but conditions were pretty nasty up there, and my legs were cold, wet, and cramping up.  

Big Creek trail, North Fork Quinault district, ONP

I decided early on that I would set a strict turnaround point and time if I wasn't moving fast enough to come out during daylight.  The Olympic rainforest is a very scary place to hike in the dark, especially alone.  I've crawled out of the North Fork Quinault on several occasions in the dark, nervously scanning my surroundings with my headlamp.  Scanning for ... eyes, those big, reflective, hungry, 200# feline eyes.

The North Fork of the Quinault river is a spectacular drainage ditch, channeling huge amounts of water through its narrow canyons.  Once I returned to my car not only alone and in the dark, but from a trail that was under knee-to-waist-high water.  It was a pretty intense little hiking epic.

Here's the obstacle course that greets you when you approach the bridge over Big Creek.

Trail bridge, Big Creek trail, ONP

I made it to Three Lakes and the start of the Skyline Trail, one of my favorite trails in the park.  Gale-force winds and blowing icy snow greeted me up here, so I did not linger.  This junction is only at 3,300' elevation, so to push on to my original goal of the Elip Creek trail would have taken me even higher up into the storm.  Plus, I would have come out in the dark.

View west toward the old Tshletshy Creek trail

I locked the park road gate behind me and headed back to Seattle.

The pop to 1775 on the SPX fulfilled the main condition I had for a possible top in equities -- that we touch the upper side of the rally channel formed since the 2009 lows.  We have done this now, so the market can exhale now ... right?

I guess we will know soon enough.  Here's a very bearish count and possible channel for wave 1 of 1 of A down.

SPX 11-01

Currencies were jumpy earlier tonight, and I think the $USD could break out a lot higher from here.  Will post more charts once the market gives us an indication of what's in store.


John said...

When the music's over, turn out the lights :)

Permabear Doomster said...

Well, here we go again.

*Denniger will be starting the week in a foul mood, with BBRY -18% on news no one wants to buy it.

Maybe he just needs to take a long hike in the woods?

I certainly could see a little downside this week, but really, there is huge QE this week, the 1730s will be tough.