Saturday, October 12, 2013

Charts 10-11: Back to Bulkowski

It's time to return to class, to learn at the feet of Bulkowski, who will remind us just what an ending-diagonal looks like.  I'm not going to post his charts and sketches -- go visit his site.

So maybe something like this:

SPX 10-11 30D

The pullback should come Monday when news of some impasse hits the wires.  They'll straighten it out later in the week.  It's no big deal. 

Still thinking we could see an end to it all Thursday, October 31, when the next POMO schedule is published.  November 3 that weekend is another Bradley turn; the last two have been hits!

Short-term count:

SPX 10-10


Depriv said...

I don't think so. The previous parts of this wedge were impulse upward, corrective downward. My opinion is, that tt won't work as a classic ED.

Not my idea, but: 4-5-4-5(-4-5?) would fit better for this, especially because the upward thrusts are seemingly belongs to different, shorter and even shorter TFs.

And this final thrust in this very short TF might not well suited for something so slow that an ED within an ED would be (and the last thrust of an ED should be a ZZ, huh?).

I expect a really violent impulse upward, for this last one.

Christian Gustafson said...

Do you think we break north of 1750, then? Would require some wave refactoring here, sleepless nights, the works.

Depriv said...

I would not dare to say any target price.

If this count is right then this last 'five' (yeah, I think it'll be the very last) will be the most violent and also the most fragile - only one thing is sure: I don't want to get in it's way...

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes yes, don't get steamrolled like the shorts this past week. The tape was extraordinarily vicious to pull bears in by breaking the long-term support, only to annihilate them on Thursday's move.

Keep October 31 in mind as a potential reversal top. We know there is sentiment in the Fed for some sort of tapering. The proof will be any number less than $85B a month, which I believe will mark the top and begin the deflationary contraction down to SPX 570.

Remember, after that final nominal low, the dollar goes feral! Get some geese!

Permabear Doomster said...

The Fed are surely even less likely to taper QE this month than September.

Lack of econ-data, and market tremors lately.
No QE taper....full QE into spring 2014.

If they did cut, then'd make for an interesting Halloween.

Christian Gustafson said...

Here is one good reason why the Fed may start tapering the QE soon.

There are others.

Bicycle said...

Go watch the Art Berman youtube video that Steve posted in the comments of his latest blog.

That's exactly the thing that will cause the Fed to hit the brakes--the clothes falling off of the shale game.

At the point that happens we're going to be a lot more worried about things like, how to afford to get the garbage out of the suburban cul-de-sac.

Vermiculture is going to make a huge comeback! Earthworm Jim is going to leap straight from your video game console into your hands, kids.

Bicycle said...

Here it is:

It's like housing finance in the days of Greenspan!

Christian Gustafson said...

/ES futures are already expected to be off 15 handles tonight. If this doesn't recover by morning, then the 1674 target for support will still be roughly a 50% retrace of the first leg up from 1646.

Permabear Doomster said...

Don't get lost in the bearish hysteria this evening.

Didn't anyone learn anything from the Fed in September?

How many months in a row are we going to have the majority of bears still tout QE is going to end.

Do you remember, late Feb'..people touting end of QE ?

Feb'..a mere SIX weeks after QE-pomo was re-started.

Seems like everyone has goldfish memory.