Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Charts 08-13: Setup for a blow-off dead whale top

How about SPX 1743 this week?  Then this market can tag the top of the 2009 rally channel and wash up like the dead gray whale my girls found on the beach last week.  

This was just south of Cape Alava, in Olympic National Park.  We saw a cougar cub on the road on the drive out there, 2nd one I have seen this way. 

Dead gray whale, Cape Alava, WA

Subwave 1 of the current series covered 60 SPX handles in 4 days.  The same move here would thrust us north to 1743 into opex, hitting a trendline joining waves 1, 3, and 5.  I can't wait to see the market news commentary on a blow-off move like this.

SPX 08-13

The girls are seasoned hikers now, purposeful and driven.

Ozette Loop, Olympic NP
There is a convergence of several important trendlines here as well.

SPX 08-13 2Y

We missed the flowers in Grand Park this year, but the huckleberries were at peak.

Grand Park, Mt. Rainier NP

The road ahead.  A 1.29x expansion of the 2008 tape hits a LOT of very interesting areas on the chart, and lands us precisely on the megaphone trendline for the 2002-2009 lows.

SPX 08-13 5Y
Good to be back, hopefully in time for the return of the Bear.

Mt. Rainier, over the W. Fork White River


Permabear Doomster said...

welcome back.

sp1740s? Err.. we have two QEs to end the week, but I can't imagine the bulls managing 1700, never mind any new cycle high >1709.

Weekly charts argue against any new highs.

Downside <1600 this Sept' does look rather good though.

Christian Gustafson said...

Good to be back, Doomie.

I guess it depends on this eternal wave 4 ending. Maybe the market trades in the range of 1680-1696 forever.

When it does end, I'm still looking for a pop that is comparable to the move off the 1560 lows. From here, it would take us up to the topline of the 2009 rally channel, completing the rally.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: forever.

Well, we're up to about 5 weeks in a 1675/1709 range.

I just find it difficult to see how a sub'2 last a week, but its fine for a sub'4 to last 5 weeks?

Having never read an EW book, maybe I'm just missing something important, but really, from a 'natural cycle' perspective, it not feel right at all.

Anyway...CSCO -10%...that must mean we battle higher into Thursday afteroon ;)