Thursday, July 11, 2013

Charts 07-11: Channel adjustment

I decided it would be a good idea to sketch the waves with a properly extended 3rd wave, which, at 1.618x wave i, would bring us up to 1701 or even 1702. 

On the chart, you can see a channel line from B of 4 up at 1702 next Tuesday.  As I highlight here in green, we bounced off the lower bound of this channel a couple of times already.

So this is an ideal, Euclidian, zero-gravity five-wave impulse, with perfect 3rd-wave extension and equality of the 1st and 5th waves.

SPX 07-11


Bryan Franco said...

If memory serves me right (i'm not in front of my screens), there is a fib time projection off of the tops of waves 1 and 3 that would have wave 5 ending July 19th ish.

Bryan Franco said...

... connecting the waves 1 and 3 that are one or two degrees higher than what you have on this chart.. i cant remember which degree

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes indeedy.

I drew that larger channel on Monday, when I decided that W4 was in.

As we approach mid-late July, we'll keep an eye on these three channels, from the bottoms at 666, 1343, and 1560. If we can tie it all together with a completed wave count, then we're set.

The top would likely come before the July FOMC, which would accelerate the sell-off.

Christian Gustafson said...

Playing with the zoom levels on my OX charts, it looks like the 2009 mega channel intersects the channels from 1343 and 1560 right about July 24.

My charts sometimes have little distortions, so try it yourself @ home. YMMV.

Thursday morning, July 25, we have Durables and UE claims, maybe a double-dose of bad news heading into the FOMC.

Permabear Doomster said...

Good chart.

As for 'bad news' should remember that 'bad news is good news' in this market..if it means the QE continues.

Sincerely..have a good weekend.

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm not posting a new post tonight because my outlook is unchanged. I'd like to see us reach about 1702 just before 2pm EDT tomorrow, with a correction that runs until Friday.

I'll walk a different way in to work tomorrow, so I can photograph a few good current Seattle RE atrocities.