Sunday, July 21, 2013

Can we make 1740 this week?

SPX 1740 midweek would be a great place to finish up the rally since the March 2009 lows.  Heck, every day since then has been a great day to finish the rally, but now we approach a decent crossroads technically that may setup the top to this nonsense.  1740 would be terrific!

Saturday we took the girls down to the tunnel borer dedication for the tunnel that will replace the highway 99 viaduct on the waterfront in downtown Seattle.

"Bertha" the tunnel borer
Grind grind grind

I very much enjoyed the carnage in Microsoft stock on Friday, and look forward to MSFT returning to the low teens or even single-digits where it belongs.  BBRY will make it there first, of course, and it is currently sporting an 8-handle.  The world does not need either company.

Oh, here's my updated daily on the S and P 500.

SPX 07-19

We had a low tide this morning, so my 5 year-old and I took the long loop walk along the parks and beaches on the north end of Seattle along Puget Sound.

Great blue herons on Puget Sound
It looks like Crown Hill Lutheran Church is done.  Condos coming soon.

Crown Hill Lutheran Church
The pews stacked outside

"What are these churches now if they are not the tombs and sepulchers of God?"  

One thing you notice reading captain Sig Hansen's book is that not only is it a great portrait of the Old Ballard neighborhood, but that now, Sig and other successful crab-fishing families have since moved away to the suburbs.  This is one consequence of Ballard and north Seattle becoming less Scandinavian lately.

Excited to see how this week works out.  Detroit was worth a full 5-handles on the SPX, but I have a feeling that Portugal and Italy may be worth a little more.


Permabear Doomster said...

:) hello

1740 ? Hmm, thats barely 3% higher, but I find that a little out of range this week.

Maybe the following week?

FOMC July'31, with GDP Q2 data, that might be the turn we're looking for.

Anyway, what IS is still not the time to be shorting the main market.

Have a good week!

Christian Gustafson said...

Thanks, Doomie. Good to see you!

You may be right, this has plenty of time left to play out with the FOMC and other fun ahead of us.

We may not yet have finished the wave 3 of this last cycle yet. It could reach my old target of 1702 (1.618 x W1) and pullback for 4. RSI certainly suggests that the "3 of 3" came on 7/11, leaving us here to finish up "5 of 3" now.

The BIG 2009 channel top is about at SPX 1745 going into 7/31 FOMC. I could live with that.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes, hey, big thanks, Doomie.

After checking my short-term charts again, I dumped my weekly SPY calls for a nice profit. A wave 4 here would decimate them.