Saturday, December 1, 2012

Charts 11-30: 1200s?

The fiscal cliff issue hits home this week; no surprise, the President is completely useless here.  I'm looking forward to his leadership and management skills when the shit really jumps off next year.

Private Vasquez: "Let's rock!"
I'm really digging Permabear Doomster's work lately; I wish I had discovered his excellent market blog much earlier.  Already he's proposing idea about certain fibs for the days ahead that are making me think about how all of this may play out.

The overall theme of theme of this blog is that we have a stiff bout of deflation and uncontrolled deleveraging dead ahead, resulting in a 5-wave plunge to new market lows.  Upon the completion of this crash and collapse, the petrodollar standard itself may break down, ending in a dramatic hyperinflation of the US dollar, and the end of its reign as world reserve currency.

Any profits made during the collapse, and not lost altogether from bank vaporization or re-re-hypothecated asset swindles, will need to be disposed of before it is complete.  The plan is to trade the collapse, and, if successful, get out of fiat money altogether.

Then, it's time to get some geese and go live the World Made by Hand.

from 1 DM to ... 1 DM


Anonymous said...

Question: If the deflation plays out as you expect, and the dollar shoots up and then crashes, would you think that having money in some kind of hard asset mutual fund (oil, agriculture, mining) at one of the biggest fund companies (Vanguard, Fidelity) would hold value? I ask this question because, barring a nuclear exchange, I just can’t see the shares of companies held at some place as big as Vanguard or Fidelity vaporizing. And I do realize that the safest thing would be to buy farmland, bullets, maybe silver coins, and such, but many people will look for some place safe to put a few thousand dollars. I would think that in the wild ride that you picture the market going on, that ETF’s would be shunned, and people would go to the less volatile assets. Any thoughts you have on this would be appreciated. Thanks.

christiangustafson said...

I'll write about this tonight, Will, obviously a huge question, which all of the deflationists on the net have wrote about here and there.

At the bottom of the trough, shouldn't you go ALL-IN into Intel stock? Even in a hyperinflationary crisis, won't THEY always be around?

Well, I don't know. No one does. What if the industrial paradigm really is over? I only hope I can take the farmland route, when the time comes, and find a snug place for a Doomstead on the WA coast.

Another writer I have seriously enjoyed over the past year is Reverse Engineer (RE), writing over at the Doomstead Diner, in my blogroll. In the middle of economic and debt crisis, he's writing about ... archaeology and anthropology. I've purchased numerous books on the subject for my end-times library in response to his work. I'll post some pics this week sometime.

Hey, I forgot to mention the significance of 1423!

1389 - 1343 = 46 pts A
1389 - 1377 = 12 pts B
1377 + 46 = ... 1423 C, A ~ C


Permabear Doomster said...

Hello Deflation land :)

I would add, about the near term, the price targets are more easier to predict than the time frame.

Due to seasonal factors, the next major wave lower might be delayed until January.

However, I don't mind either way.

Even the option players (including yours truly), just need to adjust their strike/month - as they see necessary, and be patient.

I especially agree with your latter comments on the general outlook. All of which is a truly scary future outlook.

Regardless, we can try to protect best we can.

Good wishes from London

Bicycle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bicycle said...

Artful piece by Detroit Free Press on the old Packard plant:

Packard Plant Video

christiangustafson said...

Thanks, Bicycle!

I still have a couple of iron valve wheels I ripped out of an abandoned factory building on Cermak in Chicago.

The vacant lot on the left used to be a huge factory building, very similar to the structures in the Packard plant in Detroit. The climactic scenes of the movie "Backdraft" were filmed here.

I guess the guts of the building were beyond repair. There was standing water in the basement, and scary homeless folks wandering around the upper floors.

I'm glad they could save the building across the street. It was more intact and capable of renovation.

Bicycle said...

Chicago isn't what it used to be, that's for sure. I preferred the old, midwest industrial Chicago to the current gentrified baby boomer playground version. The soul is gone.

Please keep recommending books, by the way. I just recently finished Lucifer's Hammer and I'm now halfway through Swan Song. I may move on to the Kunstler book next.