Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Charts 11-13: Channel and a Crash Call

Sorry about the dearth of posts, I've been enjoying watching the markets lately, and spending a lot of time with my kids.  My four year-old has made tremendous progress with her reading, so we are spending a lot of time together.  She has now discovered long vowels.

I had a good score on some old books from Grosset & Dunlap over the weekend, but I'll cover that another time.  Remember, I'm the guy in the pulp sci-fi novel Lucifer's Hammer who is feverishly squirreling away books as doom in the form of a comet strike on earth approaches.

I think we're in a nasty little channel, that will likely take us down to the 1270 area into the end of 2012.  If it does, then we can look ahead to early-mid February for the moment where its retrace will rollover into a market crash to the 2010 flash-crash levels.  The channel will also complete the Three Peaks and a Domed House count. 

In February, the 1370 area would be a 50 retrace of this decline, echo the 2011 high, and may even have the 200DMA in the vicinity.  Neat!

We blew a second Hindenburg Omen yesterday, and I'll guess that February 2013 is the first crash event that lies ahead.

If you haven't figured it out already, if wave 1 finishes in June, that gives us the summer to retrace that move, before things get really, really bad in the fall.

the channel
the (first) crash

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