Monday, November 5, 2012

Chart 11-5: Two trendlines

I'm watching these two ascending trendlines.  The first represents the minimum decline needed for us to finish up the current retrace wave and label it as a "4", because we will then have an unbroken trendline between wave 2 and wave 4.  This trendline is right at 1400 at market close tomorrow.  What a cliffhanger if we close right on it!

The second trendline runs from 1074 up through 1266.  Past this, all we have for one of these supports is the line from 666 through 1074.  We'll test (and break) that one this Spring.

I think Goldman Sachs may have made a great call with their 1250 by year's end.  I like 1262.  But first I'd like to see a crazy round-trip to from 1400 to a top, straight back to 1400, with one last bounce before we roll over.

2 comments:

christiangustafson said...

Our failure to complete a 2-4 trendline down @1400 forces me to question if that count was even correct.

Pieter emailed me a count that made a strong case for a failed 5th and top @SPX 1464. Today's tape puts us at about the 50% retrace of that.

The 1464 technical-top count is actually more compatible with the 3PDH count I had been tracking, but have neglected for awhile.

If it's correct, we're looking for point 25 ... oh boy ...

I'll post a count with the 1464 top tonight. It's either that or the trip north towards 1500.

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