Charts 10-23

I still see the possibility for a sharp blow-off rally top here, this week, modelled on the proportions of W1 up from 1266 back in June.

1486 no longer fits this revised channel, though.  I'd be happy with a slightly "failed" spike 5th wave ending at 1470 Friday.

1444 or so is needed tomorrow for this strange scenario to play out.  The alt would be that we keep descending to about 1396 on Thursday, giving us a clean, unbroken 2-4 trendline.  The current channel I have drawn has a slight violation of the 2-4 on a couple of pins.

IIRC, the unbroken 2-4 trendline rule comes from Neely's system, one that I like quite a bit and that usually clears up a lot of confused counts.  A decline that deep gives us a wave 4 of about 47% retrace, pretty deep for a 4.  Maybe that would indicate that the rally has lost its force, and is setting up to roll over with a 5th wave failure midway in the channel in the next week or two.

Bernanke will really have to trash the dollar extra-hard tomorrow for this to play out.

an electric wave 5?