Let's posit two options for the wave 4:
1. It will count A-B-C, putting in a new low below 1430. Wave 1 was 55 points, so this could target the 1480-1485 area. This would complete fairly soon.
2. It will keep heading sideways in a textbook wave 4 triangle, counting A-B-C-D-E. This could finish soon, or drag out until October FOMC, resulting in a final rally into the election as high as the 1500 area. So there are two variants of option 2, one that finishes sooner (FOMC) and later (November election).
Since we have lost the dark blue channel, I want to
guess^H^H^H^H^Hsuggest that the wave 5 final move up will end with a failure to regain or hold this channel. That would be a nice way to end it all.
And I guess the 4th option is that we already topped with a failed 5th. But that's the least-probable scenario, IMO, and not shown on the chart.
At least, with these several scenarios, we have decently clear criteria to eliminate the losers over the next week or so.
|Green, Blue, or Pink? or something else ...|