Apple's announcement of the iPhone 5 on September 12 only adds to the Superbowl atmosphere building around the FOMC and German court decisions. It could be a top or a bottom, and I'm starting to favor the alt scenario I have here, where FOMC finds us bottoming in the 1388 area. That is why Daneric's count is useful here, because it saves us from the dreaded wave 1 / wave 4 overlap violation.
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| Two paths to a top |
1388 would also probably mark point 22 on the Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern, too. The push to a top at 1440+ would give us point 23 and a new season for shorts.
The weekly Bollinger is rising on the SPX. We will have to chase it, and soon.
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| SPX since 2000, Weekly Bollingers |
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| SPX since 2000, Monthly Bollingers |
2 comments:
Good post all around.
Definitely seeing Sept 12 timeframe as the low, or perhaps the three wave on the move higher.
I can only be IT bearish on UVXY based on my charts (putting aside the coming split), so we may not see a top til we get nearer to Oct, if then.
My monthlies still aren't offering up much optimism on the seriously bearish stuff.
Good post Christian. Makes sense now. A lot of good news has been priced in ahead of ECB by credit mkts especially. Hence a drift down following ECB on Thursday into next week would be more probable scenario.
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