Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Charts 7/23

We're in one of those tough spots so common to wave-counting, where we really could go in one direction or the other.

I have great plans for this market in the fall, though, and in order to realize them, we need to start chopping away at the charts now.  So I definitely prefer steady selling through this week and again next week into the full moon and FOMC.

Ooh, one more thing, that I like about 1380.39 as a potential technical top for the entire rally since 2009, is that, of course, it is right at the .786 retrace of the entire 2008-2009 crash debacle.  So we've got that going for us ... which is nice.

Proposed wave 1 channel















Larger view of the drop

9 comments:

Asimov Petrovichi said...

I hope you'll be as consistent with your posting here as you were on TF.

You'll be missed there, and missed quite a bit more if your regular analysis becomes a bit less regular. :)

sooner said...

Lurker here. Went by sooner on the tf. Just wanted to say thanks for your insight!

christiangustafson said...

No worries, Asimov, I will be.

I chart and post regularly as a matter of discipline. Even when the market turns badly (unexpectedly) and blows out some spec options position I've got going, I still need to look at the charts and figure out where we are at.

Elliott wave analysis means even when you are wrong, horribly wrong, now you have new data to work into your model. Wash, rinse, repear.

Thanks, Sooner. I'll try to keep this place hummin', with charts and whatever else is on my mind.

christiangustafson said...

Hmm.

One thing on my to-do list, I think I need to update my profile picture.

The girl in that photo is now six years old, blonde, and a HUGE fan of Al Jaffee.

Pieter vL said...

I'm liking this count

http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/DJIA-YM-futures-contract-90m-7-23-123.png

Pieter vL said...

As you can see from my profile, I haven't aged a bit!

Pieter vL said...

Gonna clarify my position here, even if I can't be decisive.

We're either in 1 down, 2 up coming soon.

Or we're still in a correction to this uptrend, and we complete a 4th wave soon, and we best 1380 on the next push. I suspect its the latter, based on my monthlies which I cannot firmly contend are suggesting we're in bear cycle territory yet.

christiangustafson said...

All this hard work, Pieter, you really ought to create your own ETF.

I'm planning my own, a synthetic based on the "jerk" of UVXY, the derivative of acceleration. You put in $1, and within 10 minutes it's either $5 or $0.

Well, mostly $0.

matt_bear said...

Good evening ladies.