Wednesday, April 29, 2020

What would it take ...

... for the Fed to announce a policy of direct ETF purchases to support U.S. equities?

I bet a mid-May oil crisis could do it.

The June /CL contract settlement is hanging out there waiting to wreck the fake US shale oil industry, the worthless paper underwriting the mess, and the financial infrastructure that started it all.  Oil was up 30% today at one point, in a crazy act of denial of what is inevitable.

The Saudis have sent an armada of oil tankers to our shores, and we cannot not receive them, or they will go somewhere else, to be paid with something else (non-$USD).  So, short of sinking these ships in the Atlantic, we are trapped now.

S&P 500 hourly May crisis and collapse

What if we don't visit the 200 DMA now?  What if we finally have a proper reaction to these disastrous unemployment reports tomorrow morning?  Any rollover into "C" should be as shocking to us as the initial panic waves off the 3393 bubble top.  The floor just drops out.

The heart of the oil crisis, the chaos into the 5/19 end of trading for 5/20 delivery, becomes the 3rd wave down of such a crash.  The final waves of stock liquidation, probably the little people at this point with their 401(k)s, take us to the FOMC in early June, to beg for Fed pesos to keep the S&P afloat.

So it's June at the earliest, because the fair value of the S&P 500 is still 520.

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Rollover ahead

It looks like we have one more pop, to ~2882 on the S&P into the holiday weekend tomorrow.

4chan genius

Current chart and count, looks like we are descending in ABC triplets, may keep tripping us up for awhile.  520 on the S&P 500 in August makes sense.

S&P 500 hourly, LOG10

same chart, but linear