Sunday, September 22, 2019

Sell Rosh Hashanah

Here we are waiting once again for the next likely inflection point.  Two weeks?

The current count and recent channel projects out to a high of about 3087 on the S&P 500 into Rosh Hashanah at the end of the month.  There is a New Moon over that weekend (top).

S&P 500 hourly, count

This gives us a slight overthrow of the top trendline in the giant megaphone since the January, 2018, highs.  I expect that Trump will kick the can again on the trade war in mid-October, since he does not want to be blamed for what will be underway at that time.  Support is down around 2160 the first week of December.

S&P 500 daily, megaphone top

Expect a halfway-back rally into Christmas, possibly out to the end of January, when all eyes will turn to the Fed to monetize all of the worthless debts and lies that hold up our economy.  Powell will decline to help once again, and Trump will campaign against the Fed and the swamp monsters all throughout 2020.

Also watching for continued weakness in the 10Y Treasury; recession arrives when it un-inverts from the short-term bills.