Wednesday, September 26, 2018

How about 2953 on the S&P this Tuesday?

Looks about right.  Extended 5th in this ending-diagonal as well.

In the big-picture count, the W5 is also the extended wave.  We just need to finish up just over the 2950 level, and get some sort of vicious key-reversal day.  $NYA daily still showing its divergence -- no new high.  Looking forward to seeing where we are this Tuesday.

S&P 500 ending-diagonal

Sunday, September 23, 2018

End of the housing bubble in north Seattle

In the last real estate bubble, the north end of Seattle -- particularly the Crown Hill, Greenwood, and Loyal Heights neighborhoods, all north of Ballard -- had abandoned projects and vacant lots left in its wake.  In the current stupid cycle, we now have one last wave of frantic development, a desperate effort to build as much bugman housing as possible while the going is still good.

I won't mince words.  The developers and lenders for these projects-in-progress are going to be splendidly fucked, all of them, as the bubble pops and demand evaporates overnight for this garbage.  Did you not get the memo?  Amazon stopped hiring months ago.  It's over.  It's all over.

There are two houses on my block going on the market in the next few weeks, one from a smart friend of mine, a long-time owner, who I'm sure gets it, and the other from the worst sort of scum real-estate flipper.

I'm seeing for-rent signs on buildings, and Wolf Richter is seeing what I'm seeing in the aggregate numbers.

So let's take a look at some of the chipboard sawdust nightmares about to flood the stagnating RRE market on the north end of Seattle.

progress in Ballard

85th Street NW

A large sawdust development on 15th Ave NW ...

... so shitty and shoddy it's embarrassing ...

... I see ... black mold ... in your future

15th Ave NW

future tenements

someone please mortgage your future for this

on my weekend walk, 15th & Dravus NW

almost finished, ready for a bloated market

Good luck, FIRE sector jerks

more at Dravus & 15th.  a Starbucks closed recently near here.

Hurry up and finish these so you can discount the rents

future tenements

big project almost up on Market Street & 15th in Ballard ...

... I think that is actual concrete used in the structure, how about that!

YUGE project going in northeast of the Ballard Bridge ...

... this will be a very special disaster for the developers 
they have broken ground and can't turn back

once there was actual productive industry here

loose credit, credulous tech bubble idiots ...

... and you get this shite on 15th Ave NW

for fuck's sake, read the Austrians already

dead Crown Hill Hardware ... so build more housing!

finished product 85th & 80th NW, ugly as hell

absolutely disgraceful, what they have done to our city

dead shitty Mexican restaurant 15th Ave NW -> more housing!

Crown Hill, replace the brick bungalow with some chipboard shit

dead Radio Shack, re-zone this for condos?

Restaurants gone, new housing coming, dead Pizza Hut

who will blow up the Pizza Hut?  for housing

dead strip club, more housing coming

who will demolish this dead sushi restaurant?  85th & 15th NW

bugman housing going up behind Value Village

I think I saw actual plywood used in this construction

new plots just dug out at 85th & 12th NW, more garbage coming

there were dead vacant lots left on 85th in 2009

black mold and rot ahead in Sunset Hill ...

... the garage has better bones than the house!

Everyone get ready for the panic and crash cycle.  Seattle is so over.

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Zoom out - the 5th wave is the 'extended' wave

In a five-wave "impulse" wave sequence, the Elliott theory says one wave should "extend" to a multiple of φ or 1.618 times one of the shorter legs.

Usually it is the 3rd wave in the series that obviously extends, with the 1st wave initiating the series, and the 5th wave finishing up.  With the rally since the March 2009 lows, the 3rd wave, the leg from 1074 to 2134 on the S&P 500, is only a multiple of 1.5 times the first leg from 666 to 1370.

The 5th wave, which we are currently in, will reach the multiple of φ at 2950 SPX, not far away at all, and will fulfill a condition for the sequence to be "complete".  It may go further -- I project it out to 2970 in the current ending-diagonal structure we are tracing.

LOG charts, always.

SPX daily since 2009 lows

Monday, September 17, 2018

W4 wrapping up soon, then W5 up

The impulsive c of 4 wave should be swift and severe, but so far she looks weak and feeble, anemic, unsure of herself.

The W4 won't make it down to a .382 retrace at this rate.  More likely would be that W4 is a flat, and we find support on the lower daily Bollinger Band on Wednesday around 2862 SPX.

Then we can finish with W5 up to complete the ending-diagonal with a dive back to its origin at 2594.

SPX daily ending-diagonal