Wednesday, April 4, 2018

The case for 3070 on the S&P 500

I think we are headed to 3070 on the S&P 500.  I think we are headed there this month.

Getting there will piss just about everybody off.

The bears will be squeezed, again and again as they reload their shorts.  Bulls and bubble types will watch this proceed as a true blow-off top, and miss the OTM index calls which return high multiples.

It will be a most hated end for the most hated rally (since the March 2009 lows).

Tonight the /ES broke out of the old bearish channel.  It looks done now.  The overall decline never became truly dangerous and impulsive, did it?  The 2553 W4 low was made right after the Full Moon this past weekend.

/ES breakout

So here's the case for 3070, a true blow-off move into the end of April.

1. It's a 1.618 fibonacci extension of the drop from 2872 to 2553

2. It is the target for a Big W pattern per Bulkowski.  The psychology of this is simple -- we grind our way back to 2872, squeeze anyone covering at the new high, and push unimaginably further north.

3. The blue dotted line, which is the overhead channel trendline on a LOG chart all the way back to the 2009 lows.  IMO we need to test and reject it one last time.

4. The January highs put in historic extremes on RSI for the SPX, indicative of the 3rd wave of the series.  IMO we just wrapped up W4, so now we get the 5th, with higher index values and lower RSI, the final divergence marking the final high.

I still have the pet theory that the next great window for the start of a real Bear market (via a 40% crash back to the 1810 level on the S&P) will be the first estimate of Q1 2018 GDP, due out at the end of the month.  A miss on this would torpedo any remaining illusions of growth and expansion and animal spirits still in play.  Any bounces will be sold mercilessly.