Wednesday, September 13, 2017

First support would be the April lows

... at 2322 SPX, which allows for a .618 retrace back up to kiss the old channel, following the October New Moon.


After that, we have 1991 and 1792 waiting for us.  And the mid-term future, as I see it.  The crisis wave down starts with the March, 2018, FOMC meeting.

SPX path to 1000

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Another week, another potential topping move

Lots to be excited about this week as the best ending-diagonal tape in a long time continues to form, ominous like the storms off the west coast of the Africa.  Something very serious is brewing.


Here's the proposed E-D count.  With Irma looking like it will not level Miami, we can expect a gap up on the /ES of at least 10 handles tomorrow night.  That will be a nice start to an extended 5th wave that targets 2509 on the S&P 500:

SPX 9-8 ending-diagonal

If this plays out I'll be pricing week 1 October SPY puts, for retrace of an even larger ending-diagonal and initial low on October 6th.  This begins a larger move that initiates the Bear at long last and finds desperation support in mid-January 2018.

SPX 9-8 doom

Hurricanes aside, the real shit-storms hit in 2018.  And the bounces are going to be as much fun as the panic sell-offs.

Monday, September 4, 2017

On ending-diagonal watch again

From the 2417 low on the S&P, it looks like we are three waves into an ending-diagonal that could make a new high this week at 2491.

Futures are red tonight over North Korea worry, but what we are looking for is a sharp decline to overlap the first leg up at 2454 SPX, so that waves 1 and 4 overlap just enough for a textbook E-D.  The 5th wave would then put in a slight new high ahead of next week's FOMC.

SPX 9-4 15 min candles