Friday, July 28, 2017

Well. What do we make of this nonsense?

Thank you Bryan for the title.  The reversal off the 2484 SPX high looks decent so far.

If we've topped, then the first order of business will be to retrace -- quickly -- the 5-wave move up from the April lows, followed by a bounce.  If I have drawn the channel right, you can see how the close today tried but failed to regain it.

If 2484 was a significant high, then it begs the question whether it completed a W3 or a "C" wave.  There clearly is a 5-wave move up since the Brexit lows (1991 SPX) on the chart.  The big question then is whether we can look down from these heights, or if we have another 4th wave correction and 5th wave rally left in the tank.  IMO, all of the major legs since the 2009 (year) lows count as triplets, ABCs.

If 2484 SPX marked the end of C of 5, then we can revisit the Brexit lows this fall like so:

If 2484 SPX marked the end of a W3, then the .382 retrace of the 1991-2484 leg is 2295 SPX; we will watch for this carefully, because a 5th wave similar to the initial bounce from the 1810 lows would bring us very close to a final high target of 2600.  We have to keep this possibility in mind -- especially if we find ourselves near the 2295 SPX level (and a pink trendline in the chart below) into September opex.

If we are looking for 5 complete waves up from the 1810 lows, and especially if the Fed rolls over at the September FOMC, then E-W suggests that we could indeed approach the 2600 level in a 5th wave up, as shown here with the heavy blue line.

Bullish alt: Fed flake-out blow-off

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Want to see a strong Friday to finish up

Closing at the highs tomorrow, 2466 on the S&P 500, would be a perfect setup for the weeks ahead.

Bouncing between support and resistance trendlines would draw a beautiful head and shoulders to mark the top up here, finding strong support in mid-January.

S&P 500 3Y

Everyone + mother has been comparing crypto-currencies to tulip bulbs lately, which is obvious enough.  I think the South Sea Bubble makes for a better comparison, as it was a whole collection of scams and ripoffs from Exchange Alley in London, of which the South Sea Company was only the first.  At the end of the day, all the cryptos will be blackened craters, worthless.