So let's update charts for the bearish case, which would have us in a wave 2 bounce off the 1810 SPX low. We still have plenty of time and chart room to finish this up, maybe something like this.
|SPX 02-29 60D|
Analysts have been rumbling about March, and I suspect they are right. But the upcoming move -- if a wave 3 dive -- would also eat up half or more of April as well.
|SPX 02-29 1Y|
OK, so let's keep going with this. We complete a 5-wave impulse lower into mid-July. This leaves us with ample time for a true crash, a wild destructive market panic, into the election this fall. Worst case is a full-on collapse to 540 on the S&P 500.
|SPX 02-29 2Y|
... which would complete our old friend McHugh's mega-pattern, the "Jaws of Death".
|SPX 02-29 all|
So there's your worst case for 2016. After the final low, figure that the U.S. debt comes into question, and that President-Elect Trump can begin filing a national Chapter 7 bankruptcy for Uncle Sam. The Donald Trump is the candidate with the most direct experience with bankruptcy, truly the man of the hour, so we wish him the very best in the remaining primary election contests.