tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post8646254986976271973..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: The case for 2182 SPXchristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-71096252375559460952016-01-15T07:55:25.040-08:002016-01-15T07:55:25.040-08:00It looks like the only thing that can save us now ...It looks like the only thing that can save us now is a serious Yen crisis.<br /><br />Kuroda says he's out of gas, Japan's credibility is on the line. <br /><br />What happens if there is a snap crisis of confidence in the JPY, and Kyle Bass's ship comes in? christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-70693151898396162552016-01-14T13:04:11.356-08:002016-01-14T13:04:11.356-08:00If you do want to follow Scott's insights, fri...If you do want to follow Scott's insights, friend him, etc, <a href="https://disqus.com/by/scottmacneilage/" rel="nofollow">you can find him here</a>.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-70486462635220847922016-01-14T12:40:26.463-08:002016-01-14T12:40:26.463-08:00Scott's having a hard time today figuring out ...Scott's having a hard time today figuring out how the comment moderation feature works.<br />christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-71138622699613973442016-01-14T12:14:00.017-08:002016-01-14T12:14:00.017-08:00On a 5th wave failure, our count has a 5th wave, b...On a 5th wave failure, our count has a 5th wave, but it fails to make a higher high, instead resulting in a violent sell-off.<br /><br />My post to kick-off the year had us finishing a 5th wave with a new high into the first week or so of the year. Instead, China CNY crisis blew us to new lows.<br /><br />But.<br /><br />A 5th wave failure should have stirred up much more FEAR, real panic as the direction shifts and everyone dumps equities like mad.<br /><br />We didn't see that; hence my skepticism all the way down as to what the hell it all means. New highs are still very possible, IMO.<br /><br />Here's <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/if-was-2016s-bullard-sticksave-moment-here-what-happens-next" rel="nofollow">another ZeroHedge piece that grafts the November 2014 response</a> to "Bullard lows" (1820 SPX) to today's events.<br /><br />This drop to 1879 did do us a service in breaking the trendline support from 1820 through 1867 and 1871. <br /><br />The next time we really do drop, preferably with FEAR and PANIC, we may go all the way down to the support trendline that runs from 666 through 1074 SPX for our first bounce.<br /><br />And that bounce may very well FAIL right at the old support trendline from 1820 through 1867 and 1871, sending us south in a hurry.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-33249483122476048512016-01-14T11:55:57.247-08:002016-01-14T11:55:57.247-08:00Could you help a noob? What are the implications o...Could you help a noob? What are the implications of a 5th wave failure? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-13267134442889922472016-01-14T11:53:40.958-08:002016-01-14T11:53:40.958-08:00Oh good, looks like I'm not the only person to...Oh good, looks like I'm <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/complacent-correction-cause-concern" rel="nofollow">not the only person to be completely puzzled by volatility on this run</a>.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10073583204005097712016-01-14T11:20:27.663-08:002016-01-14T11:20:27.663-08:00CG -
IMHO... The wave that began in September app...CG -<br /><br />IMHO... The wave that began in September appears have been a nested 5th wave failure. If you count 7/20 as the top of Wave 3, and 11/2 as the top of a wave 3 of one lower degree, then the 12/29 high is a 5th wave failure for the lower degree wave, which in turn, is a 5th wave failure of the higher degree wave. We have been in a Wave 1 down since then. Perhaps we are correcting that wave now.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-11012827194496638492016-01-14T09:59:23.746-08:002016-01-14T09:59:23.746-08:00Bryan --
Do you believe that The Top is In?
Off ...Bryan --<br /><br />Do you believe that The Top is In?<br /><br />Off a wave failure / breakaway gap, or are we in a larger W3 down from the 2134 high?<br /><br />Even <a href="http://thepatternsite.com/roundingtop.html" rel="nofollow">Bulkowski's rounded-top pattern</a> resolves itself with a pop to new highs.<br /><br />All I want is a top worthy of the name ...christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-63328135326296371462016-01-14T09:34:56.323-08:002016-01-14T09:34:56.323-08:00CG yes. Look at ITB, the housing etf. 2020 spx wou...CG yes. Look at ITB, the housing etf. 2020 spx would put you right back to the neckline in that fund. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-2808195369458219822016-01-14T07:27:39.082-08:002016-01-14T07:27:39.082-08:00What was with VIX and UVXY this morning?
We broke...What was with VIX and UVXY this morning?<br /><br />We broke through a really really important support level, and UVXY only rallied a few percent. It is like the market is crashing in slow-motion, and it can't bring itself to accept that. <br /><br />There's no violent impulse in any of these breakdowns since the 1/4 open. What do you make of this?<br /><br />There were nasty headfakes that preceded both the 2000 and 2007 tops. <br /><br />Does everyone just short the farm at a retrace to 2020 SPX?christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-36938688243370006372016-01-14T07:16:58.468-08:002016-01-14T07:16:58.468-08:00BPSPX below 30. Capitulation near?BPSPX below 30. Capitulation near?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-41933568651607351432016-01-14T03:48:39.571-08:002016-01-14T03:48:39.571-08:00Hi,
When the game goes on big, it's always t...Hi, <br /><br />When the game goes on big, it's always tricky to follow it in small. This one goes on big, that's for sure. Don't bother with the small TF labels, go for the big ones. <br /><br />My big chart is like this: <br />http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20160114v00hjtq1b.png<br /><br />So, it's just falling through a previously well-played >range<. Right now, it's likely, that the range will be filled once more. Right now it's not likely (just possible) that it'll be broken for real - that's too early to be expected. <br /><br />Especially because we have two significant fibo lines below the fall: the first at 1800, the second at 1600. <br />Even if we break 1800, till 1600 it would be just an ideal retrace for a fourth wave! <br /><br /><br />However. One small thing, what I found quite disturbing. <br />Here is a small piece of chart with a kind of MA backtests both on price and RSI:<br />http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20160114v00hrphoi.png<br /><br />And this one is from the monthly chart: <br />http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20160114v00hb374.png<br /><br />It's still >not< confirmed, and at this point any bullish outcome is far more probable, and we are months away to say anything >real< about this, but maybe... maybe it's exactly that fall CG waited for years. <br /><br />Ps.: I can't see if my comment went through or not... If not, then it's here again: if yes, please jus delete this duplicate... Deprivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242885439171223112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-65916662541697614292016-01-13T20:10:06.187-08:002016-01-13T20:10:06.187-08:00Die hard fans?
Geez, no one should follow my call...Die hard fans?<br /><br />Geez, no one should follow my calls. You would have to be nuts. And this is not that sort of place. <br /><br />I'm just trying to figure out when this thing is finally over. We'll know tomorrow if the support from 1820 through 1871 to 1886 today will hold.<br /><br />I still don't understand what is going on with the VIX putting in a lower high today, and lower still than the VIX on 12/14 -- 100 handles SPX higher.<br /><br />Wave counts since the 2134 high? A mess. Since 2116? Looks corrective. Even these big declines only look impulsive if you zoom out to 60 min candles. <br /><br />20pt gap up at 2042 SPX? Think we'll close that? Or is this how the new post-Fed market behaves, it just drains away?<br /><br />McHugh has proposed a failed/truncated 5th wave top in his newsletter, which is still very possible. The touch of the lower monthly BB SPX is one thing we DID see at the 2000 and 2007 tops. This is concerning.<br /><br />"scott" would have been welcome here if he had manners, or if he actually explained what was significant or interesting about the dozens of chart links he put up.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-75449097941537752122016-01-13T19:52:19.586-08:002016-01-13T19:52:19.586-08:00I agree with Sarah's comment. Scott has been r...I agree with Sarah's comment. Scott has been ridiculed and still held on his position while providing plenty of charts. So is the rule that CG and gang ridicule others but not the other way around? Every time CG calls for a crazy new high, the market drops hard. It's almost too perfect. Feel bad for die hard fans losing money following his calls. <br /><br />Side note: Bull markets train the biggest bear to be afraid to short. It's certainly has done its job.CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11242350446331987041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-56329060607210609752016-01-13T17:07:57.020-08:002016-01-13T17:07:57.020-08:00Sarah - CG has been fairly quick to change his min...Sarah - CG has been fairly quick to change his mind when the facts change. That is what all smart traders do. 10% drawdown in the S&P is n o t h i n g.<br /><br />Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-75576699996203258532016-01-13T10:06:38.612-08:002016-01-13T10:06:38.612-08:00Amen Hugh!Amen Hugh!ruff timeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00940570092666300581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-73643374828694792542016-01-13T08:57:20.778-08:002016-01-13T08:57:20.778-08:00Oops, posted twice. Oops, posted twice. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-22415477213322027872016-01-13T08:55:19.789-08:002016-01-13T08:55:19.789-08:00I don't think anyone is complaining about Scot...I don't think anyone is complaining about Scott's performance/predictions, which have been quite good of late. Humility is important in dealing with others and Scott is sorely lacking in that dept. His esoteric rants about new age philosophy also aren't useful on a stock blog imho. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-40862208645046016212016-01-13T08:52:25.253-08:002016-01-13T08:52:25.253-08:00I don't think anyone here is complaining about...I don't think anyone here is complaining about Scott's predictions. He obviously has called recent action quite well. Humility is important when dealing with others, and Scott seems sorely lacking in that dept. Personally I have no interest in esoteric rants, about new philosophy on a stock blog either. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-15922127331869248182016-01-13T08:44:07.825-08:002016-01-13T08:44:07.825-08:00Sarah...so what. That's not the point. He was ...Sarah...so what. That's not the point. He was an asshole. Simple as that. ruff timeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00940570092666300581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-3727629154957123142016-01-13T08:42:44.614-08:002016-01-13T08:42:44.614-08:00Scott is a total nut jobScott is a total nut jobruff timeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00940570092666300581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91094829832540404682016-01-13T08:42:07.863-08:002016-01-13T08:42:07.863-08:00Thanks CG - you have run off the only person (Scot...Thanks CG - you have run off the only person (Scott) that has been correct on this blog. I've followed the blog for almost two years and Bicycle and yourself have been dead wrong on every prediction - your charts look great - but you have been completely wrong - almost two years worth of being wrong.<br /><br />It was kinda nice to have a right perspective for a while.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12127533269373610249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-9322850072812133682016-01-13T08:41:58.096-08:002016-01-13T08:41:58.096-08:00Much better CG. Thank youMuch better CG. Thank youruff timeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00940570092666300581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-68022393806565056152016-01-13T08:27:29.998-08:002016-01-13T08:27:29.998-08:00Get yer own blog, hero. There is a special today,...Get yer own blog, hero. There is a special today, they are free.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-70200575079614356132016-01-13T08:26:22.255-08:002016-01-13T08:26:22.255-08:00emotional triggers NOT TRUTH!
I didn't think...emotional triggers NOT TRUTH! <br /><br />I didn't think anyone had the nuts to post real trades. <br /><br />ADIOS.scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13178732477945523027noreply@blogger.com