tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post6170047162381105163..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: How this all endschristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8847613501102168662015-01-02T08:59:34.485-08:002015-01-02T08:59:34.485-08:00PBD
I'll take a (hyper?)inflated target of 31...PBD<br /><br />I'll take a (hyper?)inflated target of 3100 on the SPX.<br /><br />I have a short on the SPX from 2054.82, Stop at 2090.96 and T1 of 1964.17 (cluster).Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-78107975966018046562014-12-30T17:42:34.343-08:002014-12-30T17:42:34.343-08:00CG... and others....
I'm still taking submiss...CG... and others....<br /><br />I'm still taking submissions for end 2015 'best guesses'.<br /><br />see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/submit-your-target-for-end-2015.html<br /><br />--<br />Regardless... good wishes for 2015Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54806828902470376192014-12-30T09:57:45.768-08:002014-12-30T09:57:45.768-08:00In order for me to enter on the downside, I would ...In order for me to enter on the downside, I would need to see the following:<br /><br />Sell below 2066.92. So, not gonna happen. ;-) Of course, with that proclamation...<br /><br />Buy above 2101.27 with target of 2198.89 (cluster).Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-68997106314485034682014-12-30T09:44:13.256-08:002014-12-30T09:44:13.256-08:00But the snp is down today so far. Some talk about...But the snp is down today so far. Some talk about USD/JPY is down so lets watch Japan for a drop.<br /><br />Reminds me of the Herman's Hermit song. "I think I'm into something good"<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFvXvfUF-Co<br /><br />Oil storage on the plate Wed, ?could oil tank continue?benjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-76122314649804511852014-12-30T09:33:03.459-08:002014-12-30T09:33:03.459-08:00SPX upper Bollinger waaay up at 2123 today. For a...SPX upper Bollinger waaay up at 2123 today. For a useful top & trade, it needs to come in, we need to go and get it, or a little of both. More boring again.<br />christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-77399849948754793622014-12-30T09:29:49.762-08:002014-12-30T09:29:49.762-08:00Too much holiday cheer around here? ;-)
So far B...Too much holiday cheer around here? ;-)<br /><br />So far Bradley turn seems to be a fizzle?<br /><br />And of course, TLT reversed to long with target of 130.53.<br /><br />Is this not the goofiest of markets lately? Of course we're aware of all the shenanigans with the FED and the holidays aside; it's getting to the point where nothing is as it seems and the constant reliance on the dribble from the FED is becoming tiresome and somewhat nauseating. Having been in this game for a while, I can't remember such influence being played out since the Tech bubble (where all this likely started). Am I off?<br /><br />Wish a Happy New Year to all and hope we can get back to some semblance of normality. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-7635530785289362772014-12-26T09:20:28.868-08:002014-12-26T09:20:28.868-08:00Well, GLD as a short obviously got blown out. Fla...Well, GLD as a short obviously got blown out. Flag on the 5-minute points to about 116.85. We'll see. And if that goes, expect move to about 119.36.<br /><br />TLT still on short for now. Target 118.40.<br /><br />SPX still up, for now with target to 2094.47. Next target would be 2124.68; though lower confidence in that one. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-3194083927296439882014-12-26T06:01:58.113-08:002014-12-26T06:01:58.113-08:00BTW, that article sited above says, if oil goes do...BTW, that article sited above says, if oil goes down to 40$, then we will see another 2008 meltdown.benjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29164632401981593842014-12-26T05:46:11.864-08:002014-12-26T05:46:11.864-08:00How come no one mentions oil? The oil chart does ...How come no one mentions oil? The oil chart does not look like a bottom. It's forming a shelf and then falls of the edge- down.<br /><br />If this Brad. turn date works for the downside. Oil will be seen a the canary in the coal mine, JNK too.<br /><br />http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/make-no-mistake-the-oil-slump-is-going-to-hurt-the-us-toobenjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-36867915907926449282014-12-25T10:31:45.400-08:002014-12-25T10:31:45.400-08:00Great Chart Bicycle but this Market has been relen...Great Chart Bicycle but this Market has been relentless - I guess we'll know pretty soon what's going to happen - the corrupt fed has juiced these markets so much - I'm starting to beome a Bull - Maybe that's the sign of a reversal-let's hope sopbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13391731397067676439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-68733908149210515482014-12-24T08:58:49.675-08:002014-12-24T08:58:49.675-08:00Agreed re UVXY. Its lower BB could also rise a bi...Agreed re UVXY. Its lower BB could also rise a bit to meet it in the 18s.<br /><br />There's a short-term count on the SPX that puts 2110 within reach. Mebbe we drift up there on vapors into EOY.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-57757542103244974302014-12-24T08:46:23.668-08:002014-12-24T08:46:23.668-08:00Okay, doesn't seem possible to me either but s...Okay, doesn't seem possible to me either but stranger things...<br /><br />Yeah, nothing much going on except perhaps the PM markets. GLD on a short down to the 108.66 level with current stops at the 113.96 level. IF that hits, will look to pick up more phys. And thanks for the gift. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-53211543583802434402014-12-24T08:44:30.388-08:002014-12-24T08:44:30.388-08:00UVXY's positive divergence and relative streng...UVXY's positive divergence and relative strength vs SPX could be an extremely bearish "tell" imo saahilcaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00584185040061358241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-5526710353942856172014-12-24T08:40:40.820-08:002014-12-24T08:40:40.820-08:00Nah, my hike idea makes no sense. They just told ...Nah, my hike idea makes no sense. They just told us it would be April at the earliest, OK.<br /><br />I just got excited re the 5% GDP print this week.<br /><br />Hanging in here ... nothing interesting until next week, need to get nice & overbought again.<br /><br />Until then ... drift ... christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-82937318520275484762014-12-24T08:36:33.343-08:002014-12-24T08:36:33.343-08:00CG
If that hike were to materialize, would one exp...CG<br />If that hike were to materialize, would one expect TLT to decrease in price? At least for the initial hike.<br /><br />Currently have TLT short with 118.40 target. Should have solid reversal thereafter to fill prior gaps.Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-74563391446366080842014-12-24T07:39:59.386-08:002014-12-24T07:39:59.386-08:00We could get up there into EOY as well.
Or 2070...We could get up there into EOY as well. <br /><br />Or 2070 SPX was "wave (iv)" on the short-term count, and we have a 40-handle (v) left to go to get us here.<br /><br />Just can't / won't put on any short positions in the absence of an overbought signal from the Bollinger Bands -- daily and probably weekly.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-27482391220740472632014-12-24T07:06:11.569-08:002014-12-24T07:06:11.569-08:00Here are some retrace levels. You can also see th...Here are <a href="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-FZz0ZkHykMc/VJrV5mN3LFI/AAAAAAAAFm0/Xn0lj0gbuTc/w1029-h740-no/SPX%2B12-24%2B10D.png" rel="nofollow">some retrace levels. You can also see that we are out of the old channel</a> from the 1872 low.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10063094690512795712014-12-24T06:58:47.861-08:002014-12-24T06:58:47.861-08:00Short on Christmas Eve, Bicycle? Maybe, sure, but...Short on Christmas Eve, Bicycle? Maybe, sure, but be careful here.<br /><br />The upper Bollinger on the daily SPX is waaay up at 2115 this morning. It's highly unlikely that we tag it.<br /><br />IMHO we need to touch it or come within a couple of points of it. Review the S&P tape, look at the significant tops. We're just not there.<br /><br />Likewise, the vol ETFs are nowhere near there lower BBs. UVXY should be bombed out around new all-time lows for a significant top.<br /><br />Best guess from here is, pullback, sure, but more time on the clock. Maybe <a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-8Y1cUDkS7jQ/VJrRzL8oylI/AAAAAAAAFmk/5cmoqNrmQXE/w1029-h740-no/SPX%2B12-24.png" rel="nofollow">something like this into a rate hike January FOMC</a>.<br /><br />We need to see this market overbought and hanging there like a mildewy pinata.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-87328895996999199352014-12-23T13:14:59.794-08:002014-12-23T13:14:59.794-08:00big round numbers like 18000 usually don't see...big round numbers like 18000 usually don't seem to hold on 1st attempt,,,impressive day for sure. for average investors psyche 18k much more important than 2100 snp. 20k should put up more resistance next year. <br /><br />overall dec has been less than impressive so far----snp up <1% on just 15 points. only plus is another new ath hit and still a few day left T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-47755385866489529802014-12-23T10:41:35.652-08:002014-12-23T10:41:35.652-08:00Counting from the 1972 low, wave 1 is 40 handles.
...Counting from the 1972 low, wave 1 is 40 handles.<br /><br />Add 40 to 2070 for 2110 SPX final target high here? Up near our treasured daily Bollinger Band. <br /><br />Can we make it this week? I'm out of my longs, looking for the southbound entry.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-48835009616972170002014-12-23T07:42:20.373-08:002014-12-23T07:42:20.373-08:00Happy Holidays all.
Bicycle
Wish it were that eas...Happy Holidays all.<br /><br />Bicycle<br />Wish it were that easy!<br /><br />CG<br />The US has far greater problems than the EU. Though anything could happen, I worry more about our union (or the lack thereof). ;-)<br /><br />The target for this run is 2094.46 with the next cluster forming at 2193.35. Would be happy with some more downside after the first target. :-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-7515477248662288252014-12-23T07:14:24.743-08:002014-12-23T07:14:24.743-08:00Little channel on the SPX chart points to 2100 by ...Little <a href="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-5t6pydjyz3g/VJmFv9hykcI/AAAAAAAAFmI/CquVq0aqVk8/w808-h572-no/spx1223.png" rel="nofollow">channel on the SPX chart points to 2100 by about that timeframe</a>, yes. <br /><br />Grr, I wish the OX charts would handle trading holidays properly in advance. It shows them as market days until they have passed.<br /><br />The top SPX daily Bollinger is way up there as 2113; seems impossibly out of reach.<br /><br />Wondering if <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/greece-edge-after-second-failed-presidential-vote" rel="nofollow">the Greece situation and the Future of the Europe</a> may liven things up next week.<br /><br />Bradley turn date this Friday.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-61569609676911764802014-12-23T06:11:38.900-08:002014-12-23T06:11:38.900-08:00wow 5% gdp---fed likely to raise sooner than later...wow 5% gdp---fed likely to raise sooner than later or us econ may begin to overheat. given the econ strength mkts may actually rally on a hike. my 2300ish for snp in '15 could end up being very conservative. gl & happy holidays to allT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-46044527045950893592014-12-22T08:22:43.190-08:002014-12-22T08:22:43.190-08:00Yessir, Mr. Bicycle. There's that pesky 200DM...Yessir, Mr. Bicycle. There's that pesky 200DMA showing up on your RADAR once again.<br /><br />Patiently waiting again, dry powder at the ready.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-18953688895128753642014-12-20T08:45:47.646-08:002014-12-20T08:45:47.646-08:00Hello Consistant with the huge wave down is a pr...Hello Consistant with the huge wave down is a prophecy from the Blessed Virgin Mary. see below. This comes from Mons. Esseff who is the spiritual director of Sr. Teresa of Calcutta's Order and sister T. herself. A very good source.<br /><br />In 2015 "the economic structures collapse." <br /><br />let me know what you think<br /><br />ben<br /><br />http://www.locutions.org/2014/12/1-the-crisis-of-2015/<br /><br />http://www.locutions.org/category/the-year-ahead/benjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.com