tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post3065954098543161816..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: SPX 2034 as a candidate topchristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-639723252466177562014-08-31T14:25:29.657-07:002014-08-31T14:25:29.657-07:00How about this, Bryan?
We're running a true f...<a href="http://deflationland.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-proposed-bryan-scenario.html" rel="nofollow">How about this</a>, Bryan?<br /><br />We're running a true full-service blog here.<br /><br />cgchristiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-82162328605598132772014-08-31T10:34:12.978-07:002014-08-31T10:34:12.978-07:00I agree with gold. Separately, our last sequence o...I agree with gold. Separately, our last sequence of 3-5 and 5% plus corrections is one of those that requires another 3% plus correction that does not exceed 20% followed by a new closing high. Can we draw such a scenario?Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91375483670245184092014-08-31T09:33:18.389-07:002014-08-31T09:33:18.389-07:00Comment I posted over at ZeroHedge re-stating the ...Comment <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-31/currency-reform-ancient-rome#comment-5164659" rel="nofollow">I posted over at ZeroHedge</a> re-stating the case for deflation.<br /><br />- - -<br /><br />Yellen and Bernanke did not debase the USD.<br /><br />The inflation in the system has accumulated over the last 100 years. Your parents and grandparents helped fuel it, by demanding new currency to be called into existence via the magic mechanism of loans. Thus they enjoyed Spring, Summer, and Fall of the cycle.<br /><br />The problem is that Winter is coming. Or, more accurately, since the 2008 crisis, Winter is here.<br /><br />The extraordinary and unprecedented efforts in monetary policy signal that we are now playing in soccer "stoppage time". QE and ZIRP could be extended as long as faith in the system could maintain it, and as long as the resource providers would continue to accept USD EUR etc for their real goods. <br /><br />The inflation is already baked-in. It already happened. The money has been printed. The system could no longer generate organic credit and debt, which is why the Fed stepped in to take a whack at it and fill the void.<br /><br />The hyperinflation we will experience in the future is not from episodes of continued printing, it comes from a lack of faith in the mechanisms and superstructures holding the system together.<br /><br />Deflation is the key to undermining and collapsing that faith, the key to the next great crisis, the wrecking-ball of the great pyramids of debt.<br /><br />After deflation, then fiat-dollar rejection, Treasury collapse, and the next great crisis of our civilization.<br /><br /> <br /><br />Edit: Anyone else see <a href="http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1" rel="nofollow">$500 gold as a target out of the B-wave continuation triangle on the weekly</a>? Oh, that's right, you disagree because we are "printing". <br /><br />Deflation cometh, ladies ...christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-82627742309115538282014-08-30T19:34:52.382-07:002014-08-30T19:34:52.382-07:00Hmm...
Well, 2030 might be it..I'd prefer 204...Hmm...<br /><br />Well, 2030 might be it..I'd prefer 2040/50...but yes..Sept'17 or so..would make for a good cycle top.<br />-<br />I'd agree on low 1900s as key target when the next cycle completes.<br /><br />If we get stuck 1960 or so...then I'll revert to 2130/50 target.<br /><br />The 'safe' short side money will be made after the bounce from 1920/00. Until then... its tricky.<br /><br />re: interest rates.<br /><br />I still think the market will rise on higher rates...its a good thing..not least for capital formation.<br /><br />Market should be able to sustain 150/200bps higher across 18-24mths.<br />-Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.com