tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post229000803054395631..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: The case of the Bollinger Bullschristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-19451979542108007712015-01-09T07:29:13.708-08:002015-01-09T07:29:13.708-08:00This wage drop really soured the NFP. If they hav...This wage drop really soured the NFP. If they havn't put in a rally by now 10:30 am ....I sold my calls. Signs of deflation continue to surface. Now I learn that wage gains is a much more important factor for inflation than Commodity prices. If wages keep going down than (will a big trigger be the NEXT NFP out in Feb?) a "Crashette" gets going a month from now?<br /><br />Alcoa earnings On Monday. two articles on Yahoofinance. One is positive the other is negative<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trouble-ahead-alcoa-halcyon-days-213002322.html<br /><br />Alcoa earning drop big when Al price drops and it has bigtime<br /><br />I may have to wait for the 1/22 ECB meeting for a boost and then the Fomc late Jan. I'll keep figuringbenjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-36464938829124485882015-01-08T19:11:37.429-08:002015-01-08T19:11:37.429-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-44060360303644471392015-01-08T14:55:09.270-08:002015-01-08T14:55:09.270-08:00benjoyce
Hope it works out for you. I understand...benjoyce<br /><br />Hope it works out for you. I understand your frustration; given the artificial nature of these markets. However, from my experience, TA is just about the only thing that works in these types of markets.<br /><br />Beyond that, CG and Bicycle seem to have a very good handle on the markets and appreciate them sharing their perspectives.Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-3844016723172893942015-01-08T12:53:04.195-08:002015-01-08T12:53:04.195-08:00Whew! Unloaded a few passels of SPY calls, this w...Whew! Unloaded a few passels of SPY calls, this week and next, for a nice profit. <br /><br />A very very nice week here.<br /><br />Still holding 50 contracts of Jan wk2 SPY 208 calls for sheer entertainment value for NFP tomorrow.<br /><br />Heroes or zeroes! They were only 3 cents. Pray for me.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-5038197709140500102015-01-08T12:08:40.822-08:002015-01-08T12:08:40.822-08:00Good work, benjoyce.
Leverage is your friend, unt...Good work, benjoyce.<br /><br />Leverage is your friend, until the whole thing blows up in your face.<br /><br />A touch of the top BB would be sweet. So would 2100 SPX this week.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-64408198224282946632015-01-08T11:48:59.223-08:002015-01-08T11:48:59.223-08:00Wow. Quite a nosebleed to the upside. I'm gl...Wow. Quite a nosebleed to the upside. I'm glad I bailed on by bearish lower BB touch. Now I can tout an upper BB touch! With the NFProlls out tomorrow why not a green light to 2100 SPX tomorrow!<br /><br />I've had it with exclusive tech analysis. I think its a deception. Or maybe I should keep my friggin mouth shut until I become a profitable trader.<br /><br />If we do hit 2100 soon than I'll have a 10 bagger on options. But started out with $350benjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29606253704002830442015-01-08T08:02:28.330-08:002015-01-08T08:02:28.330-08:00CG
I'm rooting for you! If that's the ca...CG<br /><br />I'm rooting for you! If that's the case, then tomorrow, with more good/bad news, we could likely hit the target shown on your chart.<br /><br />Interestingly, my numbers show 2115.57 (cluster) for a target. That would be awesome given my counter position in options would return a nice profit. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-51628101060451004962015-01-08T08:01:23.129-08:002015-01-08T08:01:23.129-08:00K, now here's where it could get ugly ugly for...K, now here's where it could get ugly ugly for the bears. The SPX is now over the .618 retrace of the drop, AND the last bearish trendline you could draw from it.<br /><br />There's nothing but old highs holding us back now.<br /><br />Today could be an historic, sickening rally.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80158071681311558462015-01-08T07:14:10.666-08:002015-01-08T07:14:10.666-08:00Can we get an extreme move today? I'm thinkin...Can we get an extreme move today? I'm thinking like 2081 SPX at the close. Total bear capitulation.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-66754588402942979172015-01-08T06:52:24.925-08:002015-01-08T06:52:24.925-08:00failed 5ths are rare? Why do you think it will fa...failed 5ths are rare? Why do you think it will fail?<br /><br />benjoycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034131390067324257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-56942343368776308182015-01-08T06:38:27.457-08:002015-01-08T06:38:27.457-08:00call it crazy but we may have '15 bottom in @1...call it crazy but we may have '15 bottom in @1992. we bottomed 1st week in '13 so it is possible! will get another 5% correct but at much higher levels.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-63624623263454708802015-01-07T14:59:38.788-08:002015-01-07T14:59:38.788-08:00Hey, Bicycle!
Looks like you've been picked u...Hey, Bicycle!<br /><br />Looks like you've been <a href="http://mcverryreport.com/" rel="nofollow">picked up and syndicated by McVerry</a>.<br /><br />You should see that in your referrer traffic stats.<br /><br />Congrats!christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29902770236695745702015-01-07T10:22:07.945-08:002015-01-07T10:22:07.945-08:00We have a wicked little short-term setup here into...We have a wicked little short-term setup here into Fed minutes, Phat.<br /><br />If the Fed disappoints, we sell-off to new lows and call this bounce a "4", right?<br /><br />But if it doesn't, well, we're already up 20+ handles on the day, so do we rally to a +60 day? Something sick and wild like that, with more follow-through tomorrow.<br /><br />Short-term SPX tape looks very inverse H&S-ish, cup-n-handle-ish.<br /><br />Or it's not. Nasty inflection point ahead for us.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-41103005409956880892015-01-07T09:50:04.244-08:002015-01-07T09:50:04.244-08:00Let's see if this will hold. I'm short an...Let's see if this will hold. I'm short and still up on the position, though I would stop out at 2034.70 on confirmation.<br /><br />A reversal comes at 2047.28.<br /><br />Aside from your BB observations. Given the jawboning by the Germans and the 'terrorist' attack in France; this 'bounce' is the work of the PPT/FOMC and does not represent reality.<br /><br />I will make money on this trade, even if stopped out, just as I did with TLT and GLD; but I'm being profit-blocked once too often and it's starting to pi$$ me off. Continued intervention will only compound the end result. And it won't be pretty. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-39130470219462000812015-01-07T07:00:30.200-08:002015-01-07T07:00:30.200-08:00BTW, the UVXY hand-grenade ETF did touch its upper...BTW, the UVXY hand-grenade ETF <i>did</i> touch its upper daily BB yesterday. Its lower BB is down around $17.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.com