tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post2086120156612389742..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Well. What do we make of this nonsense?christiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-86317235570163934422017-08-02T13:24:31.940-07:002017-08-02T13:24:31.940-07:00tuned into cnbc after hours about 5 out of the las...tuned into cnbc after hours about 5 out of the last 7/8 days, seems just about every company beat this q. so far every co reporting tonight has beat.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-61377524281440260872017-08-02T13:04:27.288-07:002017-08-02T13:04:27.288-07:00what an impressive day for the dow, not so much hi...what an impressive day for the dow, not so much hitting 22k (a no brainer) but holding 22k on the first attempt. once it does for 3 days, we're cleared for take-off<br /><br /><br />hold on to your dow 22k hats, 23k could be here in a blink (just 4.5% to go)<br /><br />32nd all time record high of the year. have there ever been any stronger bull markets in history?<br /><br />T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-50773671172260329272017-08-02T13:02:27.848-07:002017-08-02T13:02:27.848-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-45495346521011767582017-08-02T12:08:37.307-07:002017-08-02T12:08:37.307-07:00oh ok sorry bryan. misread your post. that would b...oh ok sorry bryan. misread your post. that would be illegal for them to do? yellen doesn't need to be playing games, she's doing a remarkable job as it is. can't believe the donald would even remotely consider someone else. its a no brainer to nominate her for another term.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-90837229505316726042017-08-02T12:00:01.490-07:002017-08-02T12:00:01.490-07:00T. berry. I never said our Fed was buying stocks. ...T. berry. I never said our Fed was buying stocks. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91571910492167521992017-08-02T11:59:18.925-07:002017-08-02T11:59:18.925-07:00bryan is there hard proof the fed is buying stock...bryan is there hard proof the fed is buying stocks? the boj has admitted . i highly doubt our fed would need to do something like that. stocks are doing very well on their own. the fed has and continues to be ahead of the curve. that is why other cb's are copying what our fed has done. why? because it works. our economy is proof. <br /><br /><br />thanks kevin. i believe the fundies still matter and remain quite as for now. what caused 01 bear was the highly speculative internet craze and in 08 it was fraud lending. what is good about today is we have nothing really crazy going on. this recovery has been solid, sound and organic without any smoke & mirrors. the us economy i believe is the greatest in the world. we are about as far from a recession as you could get right now. T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-84313673931691461092017-08-02T10:51:21.403-07:002017-08-02T10:51:21.403-07:00T.Berry, here is an article on margin debt. When y...T.Berry, here is an article on margin debt. When you saw supply and demand, or the FED influencing the markets, what that means is via debt that is used to buy stocks. Note what happens when margin debt peaks. Fundamentals are simply carrots. When greed is on fundamentals like earnings matter, though valuations don't. When fear is on, fundamentals like earnings don't matter, while valuations do, as investors seek single digit P/E ratios, and safety over growth.<br /><br />https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/01/a-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-marketKevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-37771869560282739242017-08-02T10:33:51.159-07:002017-08-02T10:33:51.159-07:00The Central Banks seem to have the power to social...The Central Banks seem to have the power to socialize the capital markets. Print electronic money, buy ETFs and stocks. Crush the VIX. Not even conspiracy anymore. The SNB and BOJ are already doing this. I wonder if the SNB is really just a conduit for the u.s. Fed since it isn't politically tenable for our Fed to be buying stocks here.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-74756854019942042622017-08-02T10:06:17.215-07:002017-08-02T10:06:17.215-07:00the fed also has some influence based on their mon...the fed also has some influence based on their monetary policy stance which over the last 9 years has been pretty remarkable in helping create an unprecedented amount of wealth for our country.<br />meant to add:<br />and created an economic environment which helped companies grow and prosper. <br /><br />T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10575181811695511102017-08-02T10:04:04.698-07:002017-08-02T10:04:04.698-07:00kevin,
not going to doubt you as you know what you...kevin,<br />not going to doubt you as you know what you're doing (long q's :)) but according to zacks, ivestopedia and a few others, stocks are driven by earnings, along with company events, dividends buybacks/splits. i haven't seen margin debt listed but not saying it's not there but isn't one of the main drivers of stock prices. plus simple supply and demand, there has been way more demand to own stocks over the last 9 years than people willing to sell. the fed also has some influence based on their monetary policy stance which over the last 9 years has been pretty remarkable in helping create an unprecedented amount of wealth for our country. their blueprint for success has been <br /><br />good to see 22k on the dow but don't expect it to hold since it's august (usually worst month of the year for stocks) . don't be surprised to see that 5% pullback come this month. then it's off to the races into year end<br /> T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-48097517096029720002017-08-02T07:53:39.060-07:002017-08-02T07:53:39.060-07:00"and earnings are what drives stock prices ri..."and earnings are what drives stock prices right?" No. Margin debt and P/E expansion/contraction is what drives stock prices. Margin debt and P/E ratios at these lofty levels says we are headed much lower. Indeed, a total retrace is likely. That is what history says. We are in a high risk blow bull phase similar to 1929, 1972, 1987, 1998, 1999, 2007. All of those "what happened next" periods say a crash, recession, and financial crises. Average returns are dependent on current valuation levels. So when P/E are lower than average, then future average returns are higher. When P/E ratios are high - as they currently are - then future returns are very low, or average loss, which is the current projection over the next decade. However, during such returns are not linear, with a big sell-off and recovery that average out to zero return is the most likely path forward. Average returns also are influenced by generational moves, where during generational bulls - like we've been in for the latter 1/2 of last century - average returns look high. Then we enter a generational bear phase (for the global economy) - like we are in, that central banks have been propping up with trillions and trillions. Average returns then going forward are the opposite than what was expected. The only average we can count on is bulls follows bear, just as bears follows bulls, where go further than in expected. Bear about to start soon.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29975679365188909532017-08-02T07:21:45.096-07:002017-08-02T07:21:45.096-07:00"the earnings have been beating for the last ..."the earnings have been beating for the last few years and earnings are what drives stock prices right?" The late nineties saw stocks soaring even with lousy earnings. The 87 crash happened while earnings were pretty stellar. In 2007 the market had record earnings, and crashed one year later. Here is a list of companies by revenue. Notice Amazon WAY down the list.<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-38560911801790093842017-08-02T06:18:30.473-07:002017-08-02T06:18:30.473-07:00kevin, if he believes dow 23 it's going to 40k...kevin, if he believes dow 23 it's going to 40k then. not sure what his timeframe is for 40k but i'm good waiting about 8 years (just over 8%/yr).<br /><br />i just don't see any reason why you would sell this market here???? the earnings have been beating for the last few years and earnings are what drives stock prices right? aapl is a great indicator of the consumer which represents 70% of the economy. you don't sell $1,000 phones in a slow economy. americans have never been wealthier. everyone i talk with regarding the market say their 401k or stock portfolio has never been higher. that along with home prices at all time highs, strong corporate profits makes the market valued correctly.<br /><br />if the next 5 months are half as good as the first 7 (which from recent earnings appears will be an easy beat), 23000 will get taken out pretty easy. <br /><br />the dow jones is only 4.5% from 23,000. less than 1% gain/mo shouldn't be much of a problem.<br /><br />T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-20360188989443856512017-08-01T15:42:38.308-07:002017-08-01T15:42:38.308-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-72359004468439977202017-08-01T14:02:21.566-07:002017-08-01T14:02:21.566-07:00T.Berry, Martin Armstrong - a guru I follow due to...T.Berry, Martin Armstrong - a guru I follow due to his great track record - believes we are headed to Dow 23K, and if we can get that then we are indeed off to 40k. However, at that points he sees us collapsing worse than 1930s. Hussman research shows that with valuations at current levels returns for the next decade is expected to be zero to losses (each year, on average, for a decade.) While I love your optimism, there's nothing out there to suggest we are in some kind secular bull market where we go further higher and those gains for held for any serious time frame. More like, we are in a blow off that will result in a complete retracement of the gains. Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-41558023066400554592017-08-01T13:34:19.668-07:002017-08-01T13:34:19.668-07:00aapl blows away earnings, up over 5 buck in a/h...aapl blows away earnings, up over 5 buck in a/h's might be a good chance 22k does down tomorrow with #32 on tap. good luck all!T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-30153732484623617072017-08-01T13:32:04.640-07:002017-08-01T13:32:04.640-07:00per cnbc, dow jones hits its 31st new record all t...per cnbc, dow jones hits its 31st new record all time high in 2017. not sure it it's a record but its got to be close. strongest. bull. market. in. history. marches on. lol<br /><br />bicycle, if 22k gets taken out will your next top call be 40k? T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-44026306573860713142017-08-01T13:00:16.584-07:002017-08-01T13:00:16.584-07:00oh ok sorry bicycle. there just has been so many t...oh ok sorry bicycle. there just has been so many tops called since 2012 got confused lol. i'm a bull market investor not a perma-bear. tend to look at the positives of the markets on a long term basis. never played the short side nor will i ever ---way too hard for me besides it's much easier making $$$ in the long side and safer too. as i've said before i'm in for at least the next 10 years so i'll ride out any pullbacks and just buy more. this strategy is no fail. <br /><br />if the dow just see's historical average returns (8%-8.5%) over 10 years, we'll be looking at dow 50,000. who ever wrote dow 36k will need to release a sequel. lol. : )<br /><br />btw, i'm in your camp on dow 40k :) 22k will be a distant memory in a few months. august is historically bad month so that long awaited pullback could be coming soon. get your shorts on lolT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-57955904812814559932017-08-01T10:50:34.569-07:002017-08-01T10:50:34.569-07:00"Yes, the markets could double next year. Yes..."Yes, the markets could double next year. Yes, the markets could be down 30% to 50% this fall"<br /><br />kevin, i'd give the same odds for either of those scenarios happening, less than 1% :) but in<br />9-8 years the mkts should be at least double from todays prices,<br /><br />glad to see the new top at 22k bicycle. :) <br /><br />hugh, i remember when s&p 1500 was the brick wall :) so is 2480 the new 1500? lol j/tT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-16475561634098524392017-08-01T06:53:27.483-07:002017-08-01T06:53:27.483-07:00*brick wall**brick wall*Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-81382271741565949682017-08-01T06:52:39.203-07:002017-08-01T06:52:39.203-07:00The 2480ish area is definitely a brink wall. We ma...The 2480ish area is definitely a brink wall. We may have to wait till fall to clear it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-20723198610570239142017-07-31T18:47:55.674-07:002017-07-31T18:47:55.674-07:00Greenspan bond warning. That's a face only a m...Greenspan bond warning. That's a face only a mother pelican could love.<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/no-bubble-in-stocks-but-look-out-when-bonds-pop-greenspan-says<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/03/18/this-ugly-baby-pelican-will-grow-up-to-be-still-sort-of-ugly-but-in-a-cool-hip-way/?utm_term=.b233e2ba30f4<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-27217451025306316112017-07-31T15:08:58.229-07:002017-07-31T15:08:58.229-07:00T.Berry, all the lack of a day of reckoning since ...T.Berry, all the lack of a day of reckoning since 2012 has done is push an overgrown tree reaching for the sky higher and higher, which makes the likelihood of a collapse all the more likely, and all the more destructive when it comes. That's how the markets work. The more people in, the harder she falls. While the more people out near bottoms, the higher she rises. Bear follows bull, just as bull follows bear. Tis the way the markets work. History of margin debt at these crazy levels shows what we face next, and the central banks couldn't stop the last collapses of margin debt, nor will they be able to stop the next day of reckoning. Yes, the markets could double next year. Yes, the markets could be down 30% to 50% this fall. Need a plan for both, IMHO.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-40223912701076735942017-07-31T13:04:42.554-07:002017-07-31T13:04:42.554-07:00kevin, have been hearing (since 2012! with 1500 be...kevin, have been hearing (since 2012! with 1500 being thee top) the mkts are going to crash and s&p will fall to 600 or even 200. lol. bear markets pull back 20% or so which is fine because it will flush out the excesses and ready us for the next move even much higher than where it began. bears typically last around 18 months or so. besides the fed along with having circuit breakers in place would never let the market fall 50% or 70%. those events are once in a lifetime (1929 & 2008/09) much like the bull market we're in now. we'll probably never see one as strong as this or as long. again, i have no worries and will not be spooked out like those who sold out in 08/09 only to miss the greatest period of wealth creation this country has ever seen. rather than sell on the pullback, it'll be a great buying opp for the next leg higher. i don't doubt the mkt will pullback some but in 10 years it'll be 2 or 3x higher than today. <br /><br />good luck i wish you well. T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-84568453121127010992017-07-31T12:05:21.696-07:002017-07-31T12:05:21.696-07:00T.Berry, just change the "possible 5% to 7% c...T.Berry, just change the "possible 5% to 7% correction along the way," to "possible 50% to 70% correction along the way" and I'd agree with yer! Bear markets follows bull markets. Always does, and always will. The higher and longer the bull goes, the longer and deeper the bear corrective phase is.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.com