tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post2077928068321858167..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Charts 06-07: This projects out nicely to the June FOMCchristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-32123703996884826902015-06-22T12:56:52.896-07:002015-06-22T12:56:52.896-07:00look forward to next crash. have some cashlook forward to next crash. have some cashT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29993167830525862672015-06-22T12:56:15.392-07:002015-06-22T12:56:15.392-07:00looking forward to next crashlooking forward to next crashT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-23232696949513478642015-06-22T07:56:24.916-07:002015-06-22T07:56:24.916-07:00Bicycle, you just might be on to something here. I...Bicycle, you just might be on to something here. I would not have believed it before this morning, but volatility is collapsing. Amazing complacency, considering what's happening in the world. A sharp is reversal is on deck, and soon! Oh, and copper tanking further as well. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-11806707760517662292015-06-20T06:50:54.123-07:002015-06-20T06:50:54.123-07:00Let's also not forget the Irrational Exuberanc...Let's also not forget the Irrational Exuberance indicator, Shiller just came out with the 3rd addition of his prescient book. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-68454445579399962322015-06-20T06:45:31.097-07:002015-06-20T06:45:31.097-07:00Per Caldero: "When it concludes, which we exp...Per Caldero: "When it concludes, which we expect in 2016, the largest correction since 2011 will occur for Primary IV." So he too, is on board. If memory serves, the 2011 correction was around 20%? He had new highs being reached in Q1/Q2 of 2016, I'm thinking before that, but what do I know? Even the bullish Caldero has us putting this sleepy bull to bed by 2017. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-66344125147203604652015-06-19T16:09:47.467-07:002015-06-19T16:09:47.467-07:00Reverend : I would LOVE to see your scenario play ...Reverend : I would LOVE to see your scenario play out, and watch the filthy rats run for cover like they did in 2009.<br />--<br /><br />Rats.... indeed.<br />-<br /><br />ps. CG, by the gods, can you please install Disque for messaging? It really would be useful.<br /><br />I couldn't even edit the prev' post for a typo.Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-79709837357521083802015-06-19T16:08:28.312-07:002015-06-19T16:08:28.312-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91998894804873693912015-06-19T12:23:55.715-07:002015-06-19T12:23:55.715-07:00The first leg to obvious support at 1820 SPX will ...The first leg to obvious support at 1820 SPX will be great fun. From, say, the 2140 SPX level, that would be about a 15% loss.<br /><br />Still a "correction" -- not a proper Bear market -- yet.<br /><br />But we'll see a delightful effort from the well-commissioned liars in August to calm the herd and reassure all the mooks that this was the long-expected correction and that now things are better. <br /><br />We'll collect and post all the links we can from this crowd should it play out.<br /><br />And if the W3 actually shows up this time, well, how about that, huh?christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-22231955359431602852015-06-19T12:17:00.567-07:002015-06-19T12:17:00.567-07:00"The guts of the market crash will be in Sept..."The guts of the market crash will be in September." I'm not sure about the levels, but there WILL be a significant correction fall/winter. In fact, I'm so confident in this call, I challenge any bull to an online ego bet on it. For the first time since 2007, I'm thinking about taking a position in SDS. Not sure if we're looking at something like 20% or more. I would LOVE to see your scenario play out, and watch the filthy rats run for cover like they did in 2009. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-27653547096769585332015-06-19T09:29:44.438-07:002015-06-19T09:29:44.438-07:00Hey! Sarah's still around, how about that.
W...Hey! Sarah's still around, how about that.<br /><br />We <i>permabears</i> are waiting for a top, have been for some time now, we <i>know</i> that this process is long and painful. Early entries in either direction are good only for scalps, unless you get the move wrong and just get killed.<br /><br />If our initial target on a leg down is 1820 SPX, the right SPY puts will be huge, especially if VIX is flat-lined down in the 11s for the entry. But which ones?<br /><br />If Greece can delay through these IMF payments, <a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2015/04/22/forex-euro-timeline-greece-debt-repayment-imf-ecb-ela.html" rel="nofollow">the next big hurdle is the 7/19 ECB Bond repayment for 3.5B Euro</a>. There's no faking this one, and the shambles that is Greece today has no chance to pay it.<br /><br />On <a href="http://amanita.at/" rel="nofollow">Manfred Zimmel's model</a>, there's a Bradley turn on 7/16, could line up well with advance fear before the impending default.<br /><br />The guts of the market crash will be in September, IMO, pretty much the entire month. Draw the trendline DOWN from 1820 SPX, and that's where I think we'll be -- deep lows at 1300, 1200, with a final low of 1074 SPX in late November.<br /><br />I've mentioned the need for a Hindenburg Omen, which is now on the board. This is great news.<br /><br />Don't get caught holding a <i>wasting asset</i> a minute longer than necessary ... like <b>BBRY</b> LOLOLOL ... drip drip drip ....<br /><br />May our analysis be right and our trades be true. <i>We good Kulaks ...</i>christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-24359759916756446932015-06-19T06:29:11.285-07:002015-06-19T06:29:11.285-07:00http://fintrend.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Moo...http://fintrend.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Moore_Inflation_Predictor.jpg<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-78088777594118768052015-06-19T04:59:41.292-07:002015-06-19T04:59:41.292-07:00Copper looks set to take its 52wk low. Copper looks set to take its 52wk low. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-86163450093030338702015-06-18T20:01:53.282-07:002015-06-18T20:01:53.282-07:00CG- Some beautiful shots of the Sound and all on t...CG- Some beautiful shots of the Sound and all on the US Open. Makes me envious of all who live in the beautiful PacNorWest.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-5470567003499492962015-06-18T19:50:40.283-07:002015-06-18T19:50:40.283-07:00Sarah - We are always talking about probabilities,...Sarah - We are always talking about probabilities, so we first need to concede that absolutely anything can happen. That said, the Hindenburg stuff is legit and points to a market that is becoming increasingly bifurcated. That allows for a slightly higher risk of a crash. The work I have done idependently also opens the door for a crash. But we are talking about going from tenths of a percent probability to perhaps 5-7% over the next few months. Ideally you want to wait for a trigger candle. This is something CG has written about. A surprise reversal would do. Extremely poor market action on extremely good 'news'. That would do. The Dow and S&P up slightly and the Russell 2000 down almost 1% on a Friday. That might do. You want something that puts the wind at your back as a short. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-81094119311305600402015-06-18T19:49:25.202-07:002015-06-18T19:49:25.202-07:00Sarah - We are always talking about probabilities,...Sarah - We are always talking about probabilities, so we first need to concede that absolutely anything can happen. That said, the Hindenburg stuff is legit and points to a market that is becoming increasingly bifurcated. That allows for a slightly higher risk of a crash. The work I have done idependently also opens the door for a crash. But we are talking about going from tenths of a percent probability to perhaps 5-7% over the next few months. Ideally you want to wait for a trigger candle. This is something CG has written about. A surprise reversal would do. Extremely poor market action on extremely good 'news'. That would do. The Dow and S&P up slightly and the Russell 2000 down almost 1% on a Friday. That might do. You want something that puts the wind at your back as a short. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8471626151909272422015-06-18T17:15:15.709-07:002015-06-18T17:15:15.709-07:00Bryan do you see an imminent fall like Bicycle doe...Bryan do you see an imminent fall like Bicycle does or do you think think Market chugs along for a while longer<br /><br />thanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12127533269373610249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-25803551270268475182015-06-18T09:57:44.337-07:002015-06-18T09:57:44.337-07:00Ja, UVXY pre-split $7 handleJa, UVXY pre-split $7 handlechristiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-83826309403990545172015-06-18T09:48:10.961-07:002015-06-18T09:48:10.961-07:00Yet another low for UVXY. Yet another low for UVXY. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-33634755992781208572015-06-18T07:44:59.930-07:002015-06-18T07:44:59.930-07:00Q1 final GDP is reported next week, 6/24, as well....Q1 final GDP is reported next week, 6/24, as well. Red?christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-37133746518369406122015-06-18T07:43:24.947-07:002015-06-18T07:43:24.947-07:00McHugh reported a 3rd Hindenburg Omen day in his u...McHugh reported a 3rd Hindenburg Omen day in his update last night.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10416987967327387202015-06-18T07:27:57.943-07:002015-06-18T07:27:57.943-07:00OMG Bicycle, what have you done?
If you're wr...OMG Bicycle, what have you done?<br /><br />If you're wrong on this call, your credibility will be called into question. LOL<br /><br />Bollinger Bands will set you free ...christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-27553854358133805312015-06-18T07:07:59.376-07:002015-06-18T07:07:59.376-07:00No. CG it hasn't. Amazingly, since the last tr...No. CG it hasn't. Amazingly, since the last trigger, we haven't even fallen 3% on a closing basis. So we are stilled allowed to fall 20% + outright, or make a new high and fall 20% +Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-63916032552236319472015-06-18T06:21:00.264-07:002015-06-18T06:21:00.264-07:00^IRX is still floored, but not quite zero.
At lea...<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIRX+Interactive#%7B%22showArea%22:false,%22showLine%22:false,%22showCandle%22:true,%22showBollinger%22:true,%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22" rel="nofollow">^IRX is still floored, but not quite zero</a>.<br /><br />At least its lower Bollinger is positive once again! LOL<br /><br />I'm <i>concerned</i> that Bryan's "hi-lo" historical model may have been violated recently by all of this chop chop chop.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-52740802714067314502015-06-18T06:16:44.425-07:002015-06-18T06:16:44.425-07:003 month Treasury @ zero. 3 month Treasury @ zero. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10948405833587829012015-06-17T19:34:42.481-07:002015-06-17T19:34:42.481-07:00sorry to those expecting june hike. surely sept ri...sorry to those expecting june hike. surely sept right? surely? still no reason to . zirp working rather well.... and until becomes problem won't see any hikes. zero need to.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.com