tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post8492573544307563423..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Charts 10-29christiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-10809276691737710242013-10-31T12:21:36.934-07:002013-10-31T12:21:36.934-07:00...QE continues.
It will not end.
They might cut......QE continues.<br /><br />It will not end.<br /><br />They might cut it a bit next spring/summer, but you can sure bet they'll ramp it >$100bn a month..on the first excuse.<br /><br />They WANT the bubble.<br />--Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91704531120058314862013-10-30T08:25:11.597-07:002013-10-30T08:25:11.597-07:00In other words, the trailing three corrections bas...In other words, the trailing three corrections based on closing prices has to be something other than 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% going into a new high. There are eight total permutations of this string. The other seven possiblities (say, 5%+, 5%+, 5%+, or 5%+, 3-5%, 5%+, etc) that result in new highs are all eligible long term tops. Long term top is defined as any decline in excess of 20%. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-91523435054079833262013-10-30T08:24:36.406-07:002013-10-30T08:24:36.406-07:00Just a theory, PD.
Why has the Fed been selling b...Just a theory, PD.<br /><br />Why has <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE" rel="nofollow">the Fed been selling bonds back to the market lately</a>?<br /><br />Is someone starved of collateral? Wouldn't it be easier if the Fed simply bought <i>fewer</i> of these sandwiches next month, instead of going through all of the trouble?<br /><br />This comes tomorrow at 3pm, at the end of a parabolic ramp, an arguably-complete wave count, near a New Moon, and inside of a Bradley turn window (the last two have nailed turns).<br /><br />Just a theory, PD.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-6028079049723680812013-10-30T08:20:19.638-07:002013-10-30T08:20:19.638-07:00"that requires a new high" should read &..."that requires a new high" should read "that requires a new high after the next 3-20% correction which results in a new high, assuming the new trailing sequence going into said new high doesn't become 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% yet again."Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-67143011527656788952013-10-30T08:19:53.109-07:002013-10-30T08:19:53.109-07:00huh?
The surprise taper, even if not announced to...huh?<br /><br />The surprise taper, even if not announced today?<br /><br />Sorry, but what the hell? Just why do you think that?<br />-<br /><br />QE-pomo will be $45bn in November.<br />It will 45 in Dec.<br />Jan..Feb...March...<br /><br />Unless you have some inside information, that is the craziest thing I've read in a while.Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-79730250275729775152013-10-30T08:16:45.897-07:002013-10-30T08:16:45.897-07:00CG - it does count. The trailing sequence is 5% +,...CG - it does count. The trailing sequence is 5% +, 3-5%, 3-5%, which is May, Aug, Sep, respectively using closing prices. This sequence has never produced a 20% + correction without having a 3-20% correction followed by a new high first. This was precisely the sequence going into May 21st as well. August and September WERE eligible tops that didn't pan out. This one nasty sequence, 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% happens to be the only trailing sequence of 3-5% and 5%+ declines that requires a new high! This isn't my opinion, just history. I wish this wasn't the case. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-65002390617683315912013-10-30T07:48:33.365-07:002013-10-30T07:48:33.365-07:00Bryan--1987?Bryan--1987?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07905602919957796183noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-69826130390211063872013-10-30T07:38:44.356-07:002013-10-30T07:38:44.356-07:00I don't understand, Bryan.
Doesn't the ...I don't understand, Bryan. <br /><br />Doesn't the May top & decline count? How about August's top?<br /><br />christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-85123636657473913972013-10-30T07:11:13.945-07:002013-10-30T07:11:13.945-07:00CG -
Since 1896, there have been 346 peak to tro...CG - <br /><br />Since 1896, there have been 346 peak to trough declines in excess of 3% that were followed by new highs. Looking at the last three, 5% +, 3-5%, and 3-5%, there is NO precedent for the market to decline in excess of 20% without another 3% + correction first, followed by a new high. That leaves a lot of wiggle room (3-20%), but by that measure, I am saying there is no precedent for a long-term top here without one more mini-correction first. Do you have a count that admits for a 3-20% decline followed by a new high?Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-70367502942869269252013-10-30T06:44:18.460-07:002013-10-30T06:44:18.460-07:00My bet is, that it's already over.
This chan...My bet is, that it's already over. <br /><br />This channel you drow is a fifth wave of an impulse, IMHO. <br />It's an impulse itself. <br /><br />If you look at the SP futures, mind the triangles (always fourth wawe in an impulse) swarming on various TFs. The last one is around 1756. <br /><br />After that, it's a single impulse upward on M5. (With an almost-triangle around 1767). <br /><br />Deprivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242885439171223112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-74507811483934294142013-10-30T05:37:33.020-07:002013-10-30T05:37:33.020-07:00And hey, it's even possible that the Fed could...And hey, it's even possible that the Fed could announce a policy shift in the statement today. Wouldn't that be something?christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-59060737106943262242013-10-30T01:24:15.310-07:002013-10-30T01:24:15.310-07:00The wall of cash into U.S.-listed mutual funds and...The wall of cash into U.S.-listed mutual funds and ETFs (including those that invest overseas) has hit $277 billion, and that's with just over two months to go in the year, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.<br />That's the most for one year since $324 billion for all of 2000, which of course is the year the last tech bubble burst.<br />About one-sixth of that money has been invested this month.<br />TrimTabs says the net $45.5 billion through Oct. 25 is the fifth-highest monthly inflow on record.<br />(The two biggest monthly numbers also came this year: $66.3 billion in January and $55.3 billion in July).<br />A big driver has been the Federal Reserve's surprise decision not to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases, which means interest rates are likely to stay low for longer (and making safe-haven bonds less attractive).<br />The story is the same in Europe, where money has flowed into stock funds for 17 straight weeks, including a record $5 billion in the latest week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.<br />Since June, inflows have totaled $83 billion.<br />But as is often the case with mom and pop investors, their timing may be less than impeccable.<br />If it's not another case of "buy high and sell low," it may at least be "buy high".<br />--Silvia Ascarelli, "$277 Billion Into Stock Funds So Far This Year; Highest Since 2000", Blogs.MarketWatch.com, October 29, 2013.<br /><br />Also it is interesting that the R2K is beginning to under perform the bigger stock indexes.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07905602919957796183noreply@blogger.com