tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post7703630596245187985..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Has C down begun?christiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-90754657085979861962020-06-25T13:46:59.149-07:002020-06-25T13:46:59.149-07:00Just in case you guys think I'm losing my mind...Just in case <a href="https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/a92c2847c3c6af84168af3c8e216448788067ef24815d933321c694b5f9b3c7f" rel="nofollow">you guys think I'm losing my mind here</a>.<br /><br />This is serious business. And, yes, I have a model for the S&P 500 for the case of a 3GD failure.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-38629097389284922612020-06-25T13:22:44.123-07:002020-06-25T13:22:44.123-07:00Nope, looks like the channel held and we survived ...Nope, <a href="https://invst.ly/r92w2" rel="nofollow">looks like the channel held and we survived for now</a>. We're probably good for 3270 into next weekend and the Independence Day holiday.<br /><br />Do keep an eye on the 3GD in China -- it is a potential catastrophe that the Fed cannot contain. It could easily outdo the Taiping Rebellion and even rival WW2 in scale as an epic human disaster.<br /><br />Hmm, interesting. I knew <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gan_Yang" rel="nofollow">this fellow</a> in college, many years ago. Very cool to see what he has become in the China.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-39481332431939682702020-06-03T12:08:26.149-07:002020-06-03T12:08:26.149-07:00This was also excellent like all his work:
https:...This was also excellent like all his work:<br /><br />https://consentfactory.org/2020/06/01/the-minneapolis-putsch/Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00382102193735243348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54493882367409049062020-06-02T13:42:05.918-07:002020-06-02T13:42:05.918-07:00I think his argument is the same as most, the syst...I think his argument is the same as most, the system is doomed, but his angle! That the Chinese are going to purposefully pull the rug out from under us, is very interesting. Dethroning us without a war, essentially the people conning us get conned. Makes me think of Order 66Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00382102193735243348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-22215282101161205602020-06-02T13:30:18.842-07:002020-06-02T13:30:18.842-07:00Yeah, he's amazing, if sporadic. Thanks for t...Yeah, he's amazing, if sporadic. Thanks for the tip on his latest post. They take a LONG time to digest.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-23494249662785644452020-06-02T12:47:57.734-07:002020-06-02T12:47:57.734-07:00Great write up. Great write up. Randall Beehomeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16188649109467629634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-19764498118005425532020-06-02T12:27:14.173-07:002020-06-02T12:27:14.173-07:00@Christian
Have you ever read this guy? Entertai...@Christian<br /><br />Have you ever read this guy? Entertaining posts and a totally different angle them most.<br /><br />http://www.deepthroatipo.com/alibabas-fiscal-year-end-earnings-call-5-22-20/Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00382102193735243348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-62354375053362871922020-06-01T08:40:32.354-07:002020-06-01T08:40:32.354-07:00The market is excited to see us return to growth a...The market is excited to see us return to growth and recovery. The 200 is now support, that's just grand. Is the <a href="https://invst.ly/q-7bh" rel="nofollow">next plausible resistance the top of the megaphone</a>? (SPX around 3115)christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-25967305907565442572020-05-31T20:49:42.599-07:002020-05-31T20:49:42.599-07:00Another black swan with the rioting. Can the Fed ...Another black swan with the rioting. Can the Fed payoff the rioters?umdengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07422631565959806456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-60843044541392361932020-05-30T18:32:07.954-07:002020-05-30T18:32:07.954-07:00I don’t think shorts are going to be squeezed next...I don’t think shorts are going to be squeezed next week cbastenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02014566905037651065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-40203109431259197622020-05-29T18:11:25.484-07:002020-05-29T18:11:25.484-07:00I listened to the press conference. Nothing new, s...I listened to the press conference. Nothing new, so clearly just given to squeeze more shorts. That was all it was. They are trying to make someone whole. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-11890896004120959912020-05-29T14:36:25.238-07:002020-05-29T14:36:25.238-07:00Let's continue to let them steal our trade sec...Let's continue to let them steal our trade secrets, and buy us out of our JV's for $0.20/ on the dollar for all of eternity. cbastenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02014566905037651065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-51188951448091186282020-05-29T13:45:17.032-07:002020-05-29T13:45:17.032-07:00So POTUS calls a big Friday presser to show us wha...So POTUS calls a big Friday presser to show us what an incredible coward he is?<br /><br />Maybe he can call in the Army Corps of Engineers to help build a sturdy bridge to Formosa from the mainland.<br />christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-2959605626578618482020-05-29T09:05:18.132-07:002020-05-29T09:05:18.132-07:00AMZN may have a wave 5 rally still to go.
Better ...AMZN may have a wave 5 rally still to go.<br /><br />Better might be the semis, which are in the EW 2 position, and thus ripe for a major selloff. Semis are also in the crosshairs of any China spat, as well as cyclical in nature, thus hurt by a prolonged recession, which is likely. SMH also have a good entry point near 139, and a clear stop point if the rally resumes at the 143 breakout point.<br /><br />Indeed, that SMH 143 is good stop for all bear positions, as we really shouldn't see 143 hit if the bears are right.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-26411968434804984092020-05-29T08:42:44.562-07:002020-05-29T08:42:44.562-07:00Is buying a put on AMZN suicide? Is buying a put on AMZN suicide? cbastenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02014566905037651065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-32018604009556076522020-05-29T07:44:15.133-07:002020-05-29T07:44:15.133-07:00I'll take September for the formal announcemen...I'll take September for the formal announcement that the NY Fed has a new facility dedicated to purchasing the $SPY.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-35903698047213287942020-05-29T07:32:52.949-07:002020-05-29T07:32:52.949-07:00The perfect set-up would be to see the SP cash dro...The perfect set-up would be to see the SP cash drop to test 2980, followed by a rebound to 3030 to complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top just above the 200 day MA. Then we gap down below 2960 as things go ape in Hong Kong and China retaliation against whatever Trump does today. That would complete a perfect Island reversal under the 200 day, and set us up for a third wave mini crash.<br /><br />Even the bull case looks scary to me. Look at 2015 when the NAZ suffered a major sell-off only to rally back close to its old highs. Then it smashed to below the 200 day - which is currently 10% lower than current - only to see a rally straight back to near its old high - anyone up for a 10% down, 10% rally (I am...) - which was then followed by a major 5 wave sell-off that smashed below the initial crash.<br /><br />So, NAZ 9359 to 8415 to 9330 to 6000. All over the next month or two.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-26997033191382142452020-05-28T13:24:34.180-07:002020-05-28T13:24:34.180-07:00Have not seen spreads blow out like this in the sm...Have not seen spreads blow out like this in the small names in months. Not sure if it is a one day fluke yet or what, but caution seems warranted.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-2440123378414192422020-05-28T13:08:25.356-07:002020-05-28T13:08:25.356-07:00E-D finish?<a href="https://invst.ly/qyp-t" rel="nofollow">E-D finish</a>?christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-33811640974076975252020-05-28T12:22:08.982-07:002020-05-28T12:22:08.982-07:00This looks constructive.<a href="https://invst.ly/qyph-" rel="nofollow">This looks constructive</a>.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-39805148747119272152020-05-28T10:56:11.726-07:002020-05-28T10:56:11.726-07:00VXX bid today, so far. Smalls' outright negati...VXX bid today, so far. Smalls' outright negative today, so far. No new short term low in VXX relative to a new short term high in SPY. Interesting rotation out of software yesterday that completely reversed today. Software getting massively weighted in the growth indexes. Maybe Salesforce earnings after the close today marks an important turning point for the industry, and consequently, for the markets.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-85761590661303997832020-05-27T11:54:18.660-07:002020-05-27T11:54:18.660-07:00A few weeks ago I cautioned against being too bear...A few weeks ago I cautioned against being too bearish, as oil was hitting $5 (in real pricing for continuous contract,) and had the look of an EW 5 swoon, which are impulse ending moves. That suggested a bounce to $35 level for oil, and here we are.<br /><br />I also was wary of bearish position, as small caps - which have a large energy and financial component, with financials having a huge interest in the oil sector - had yet to flush out the bears.<br /><br />I suggested it maybe the 200 day moving average of the Industrials, transports, and small caps would cap this rally, and not the S&P500, which everyone was focused on. And here we are with the SP still struggling at its 200 day, while the more important others have flushed out the bears and have moved much closer to their own 200 day.<br /><br />Now all that has happened, the bulls are in a much weaker position, and the bear turn can land at any moment. The indexes may inch higher to end Month and begin June, although a gap down tomorrow wouldn't be a surprise either, and I've already reversed my TNA positioning in favor of TZA and TVIX. I still hold longs overall - QQQ - but will reverse those for PSQ and QID once trends south.<br /><br />We will have to see how any correction unfolds as to whether Christian's charts will fulfill their destiny, or if the March panic lows was actually a true bottom and BTFD remains the winning approach.<br /><br />Here? I see more risks on the long side than I do opportunity, so hedges on!Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-88769560097649205002020-05-19T14:04:19.346-07:002020-05-19T14:04:19.346-07:00Yes, but which 200 day MA? The SP one near 3000 (c...Yes, but which 200 day MA? The SP one near 3000 (close?) or the Dow Industrial one near 26,400 (+9%?) For traders like me, that's a BIG difference.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-35993136463552139942020-05-18T19:32:59.347-07:002020-05-18T19:32:59.347-07:00Big test likely the real 200 DMA late this week, h...Big test likely the real 200 DMA late this week, huh? All the Bears always have started with this retest and fail.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8961010725872565772020-05-18T18:12:10.985-07:002020-05-18T18:12:10.985-07:00CG,
I think the Fed reads your blog just to f*** ...CG,<br /><br />I think the Fed reads your blog just to f*** around with the EWs you draw.<br /><br />I thought we might have an inverse head and shoulder here but it looks like the Fed doesn't want to wait. Do they plan for the market to recover in time for the election?umdengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07422631565959806456noreply@blogger.com