tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post7139175247257312275..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Halfway homechristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80055548371821182522020-07-28T06:56:17.556-07:002020-07-28T06:56:17.556-07:00When Silver starts looking pretty, then watch out ...When Silver starts looking pretty, then watch out below for PM.<br /><br />Indeed, as the March crash shows, PM follow stocks when they tank, and I expect that here.<br /><br />Watch USD/Yen, where rising YEN kills PM and stocks. That's happening now.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-52443385875737227392020-07-27T12:16:01.245-07:002020-07-27T12:16:01.245-07:00Silver and gold are looking pretty :-)Silver and gold are looking pretty :-)umdengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07422631565959806456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-72082642763589429052020-07-27T10:41:23.381-07:002020-07-27T10:41:23.381-07:00McHugh has a big turn date ahead (weeks), but I...McHugh has a big turn date ahead (weeks), but I'm unsure atm whether it will mark a high or a low, ready for either. There are E-W counts out there suggesting 3280 was a failure on the S&P to make a matching high with the $NDX. Possible, sure, but we've already seen several viable five-wave moves from highs get bought up furiously.<br /><br />I will add shorts <a href="https://invst.ly/rl1tu" rel="nofollow">if we break this channel</a>, and/or through the pink-line wedge support at 3150.<br /><br />Black swans -- Three Gorges Dam, HK dollar, event risk from Congress and UE supplement legislation, FOMC this week.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-77694937438509172020-07-27T10:35:17.213-07:002020-07-27T10:35:17.213-07:00The count seems to still be intact although no dow...The count seems to still be intact although no down yet...Deeznizzutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000364179366101487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-35487343085294935942020-07-16T08:43:53.402-07:002020-07-16T08:43:53.402-07:00There are some similarities with the NAZ pattern o...There are some similarities with the NAZ pattern of October 2007 (peak) and now. Back then, we saw peaking action around the 20 day moving average - which we have here - followed by a four day hard plunge to below the 50 day moving average, to eventually challenge the 200 day. The 50 day for NAZ is 9750, while the 200 day is 8900. If we see those numbers hit next week, then you need to get outta the wilderness and in front of your trading screen!Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-44916483536160353812020-07-16T07:16:55.172-07:002020-07-16T07:16:55.172-07:00I'll post the case for SPX 507 by Election Day...I'll post the case for SPX 507 by Election Day, in total seriousness, based on an analysis of the 2008 cycle.<br /><br />Mid-August SPY calls are crazy expensive and have already priced in a move to new ATHs. <br /><br />I sit on me hands and plan an epic hike across the Pasayten Wilderness.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-73972069142262476292020-07-16T07:14:14.941-07:002020-07-16T07:14:14.941-07:00A lot has to happen for the bulls to get higher pr...A lot has to happen for the bulls to get higher prices here.<br /><br />On the bullish side, we have the NASDAQ and semis at new highs, but they are overstretched, and due a pullback.<br /><br />On the bearish side, we have the Industrials, Transports, Mid Caps, and Small Caps challenging their down-trending 200 day moving averages. In bear markets, such tests fail, and we crash harder again.<br /><br />Sentiment is mixed, with options traders extremely bullish, while AAII shows way too many bears. The former could be viewed as having implications in the short term - that can reverse quickly when stocks correct - while the latter could be viewed as more intermediate. So down now up later?<br /><br />Hopefully, the indexes get inline on the next correction phase, and I'm watching to see if we get a five wave move down from the peak for the NASDAQ (which maybe a correction ending C wave for SP and Industrials, so watch for that.) <br /><br />I remain long QQQ - as trend remains up, for now - while holding small amounts of TZA and UVXY hedges - as risk of a correction remains extreme. I expect both to be inline on a dip below NASDAQ 10K, which is where we'll get to see whether remainder of year will be all bull or all bear, where aggressively all-in following the trend is called for.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-57317222467362886942020-07-15T07:01:18.063-07:002020-07-15T07:01:18.063-07:00Summer doldrums now. The maniacs have defeated ev...Summer doldrums now. The maniacs have defeated every single impulsive-looking move south.<br /><br />We probably settle in for a grind up to marginal new SPX highs. Nothing worth betting on, calls are expensive, so we get there gradually and eat the gonzo aggressive speculators. <br /><br />McHugh suggests mid-August for the next big turn. That might mean an inflection around the DNC, maybe when Biden announces his running-mate.<br /><br />There are important Fed meetings in September and the day after the POTUS election, and I bet they are both bottoms.<br /><br />There are some neat aspects of the 2008 crash I might post, how it divides into perfect channels.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-61870118647199912142020-07-15T05:41:26.356-07:002020-07-15T05:41:26.356-07:00Any update? Would love to see another write up of...Any update? Would love to see another write up of your thoughts on the current situation. Thanks!Deeznizzutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000364179366101487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-102333194993631872020-07-12T23:00:24.822-07:002020-07-12T23:00:24.822-07:00OMG..how long have been calling "the top&quo...OMG..how long have been calling "the top"? Get out of your head- man!!! This is a new game.cdudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13318522312587305229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-86089973314478419192020-07-07T13:52:49.803-07:002020-07-07T13:52:49.803-07:00Agreed, today's move felt very deliberative, l...Agreed, today's move felt very deliberative, like the S&P was trying to figure something out. <br /><br />We exited one channel -- we'll test the larger one around 3070, and it's free-fall after that.<br /><br />If the rally from the March low was "B", then we still have a 5-wave monster "C" down impulse looming, which just may have started today. Should get confirmation soon or blow up yet another bear play.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-52308370057954895012020-07-07T13:09:20.927-07:002020-07-07T13:09:20.927-07:00Will the gainfully employed robots be customers of...Will the gainfully employed robots be customers of $ZM? Disclosure: I shorted it today with a tight stop.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-78765134144685421822020-07-07T12:33:10.846-07:002020-07-07T12:33:10.846-07:00Panic buying of "virtual everything". Ye...Panic buying of "virtual everything". Yet the banks and the energies and everything real are not participating. The bifurcation is ominous. Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54319640056329238272020-07-07T12:31:00.135-07:002020-07-07T12:31:00.135-07:00Looks ominous. Wonder if today is the day.Looks ominous. Wonder if today is the day.Deeznizzutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000364179366101487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-53054040176029425712020-07-06T09:59:02.622-07:002020-07-06T09:59:02.622-07:00It's nuts, isn't it? Sheer insanity, of c...It's nuts, isn't it? Sheer insanity, of course.<br /><br />All this while a true Sword of Damocles hangs over the world. There are numerous dams upstream of the Three Gorges Dam; if any of them fail, they become dominoes, overwhelming everything downstream.<br /><br />We may be right on the brink of the worst human tragedy in history. The dam failure would trigger shocking casualties, famine, civil war, and likely international war as India, Vietnam, Japan, and even Russia now step forward to protect their interests in the demise of the CCP.<br /><br />The CCP could just lash out everywhere, desperate to hold on to power.<br /><br />There are numerous nuclear power plants along the Yangtze -- will they wash out and poison the ocean?<br /><br />And the CCP might not be able to warn and evacuate the vulnerable, because doing so would admit failure. It would be a supreme loss of "face". How's that for a Catch-22?<br /><br />I urge you to follow the TGD threads on /pol/, and, if the dam does fail, immediately run to the grocery store and purchase a few months' food. The magnitude of this potential catastrophe cannot be overstated; it is the blackest of black swans.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-2991512065504737832020-07-06T09:34:51.171-07:002020-07-06T09:34:51.171-07:00Not looking good huh. How do you reconcile the te...Not looking good huh. How do you reconcile the techs hitting all time highs?Deeznizzutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000364179366101487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-35773564893698078062020-06-29T00:10:22.801-07:002020-06-29T00:10:22.801-07:00https://s12.directupload.net/images/200628/8j68rp5...https://s12.directupload.net/images/200628/8j68rp5w.jpgel marhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17913134794328103033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-52916917853223515182020-06-24T11:29:37.022-07:002020-06-24T11:29:37.022-07:00No one is talking about 3GD ... yet.No one is talking about 3GD ... yet.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-33546149899995479072020-06-24T11:25:15.269-07:002020-06-24T11:25:15.269-07:00It might, yeah. We need to break through the obvi...It might, yeah. We need to break through the obvious channel support today.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-71576845679186615482020-06-24T11:18:18.366-07:002020-06-24T11:18:18.366-07:00Does this action fit your original count? Does this action fit your original count? Deeznizzutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000364179366101487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-49743951635640174452020-06-23T20:05:33.706-07:002020-06-23T20:05:33.706-07:00Looking like smooth sailing until at least the Jul...Looking like smooth sailing until at least the July 4 holiday. 3270 by then? There's a reasonable count on the S&P for that. Calls priced out of this world, nuts.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-29978081764022945342020-06-22T10:28:15.471-07:002020-06-22T10:28:15.471-07:00W2 count still on the table -- if c of 2 is a 5-wa...W2 count still on the table -- <a href="https://invst.ly/r7nfp" rel="nofollow">if c of 2 is a 5-wave megaphone</a>. Dangerous ...christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-47228963454494376982020-06-21T20:43:16.675-07:002020-06-21T20:43:16.675-07:00If this channel holds on the /ES this should be an...If <a href="https://invst.ly/r7bm1" rel="nofollow">this channel holds on the /ES</a> this should be an exciting week.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-50044853360200963372020-06-19T09:20:34.624-07:002020-06-19T09:20:34.624-07:00🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-26851934196746191302020-06-17T14:32:47.257-07:002020-06-17T14:32:47.257-07:00Thursday (tomorrow) we trip the 2nd level circuit ...Thursday (tomorrow) we trip the 2nd level circuit breaker. <br /><br />Market needs a 20% flush.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.com