tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post3817273118301734787..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Charts 02-29: More more bearish casechristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-78486165389551165602016-03-01T19:32:11.837-08:002016-03-01T19:32:11.837-08:00Bryan,
That statement is pretty close to my thoug...Bryan,<br /><br />That statement is pretty close to my thoughts. What are your upside targets on the S&P 500 for this current rally? IMHO, I think this rally finishes out somewhere between 2000 and 2050. One macro indicator I follow is the spread between junk bonds and US Treasuries. The spread has been declining and helping to support this current rally. However, the spread is still greater than 7%.<br /><br />My strategy is to wait until this rally tops or is close to topping and then I will go short. I'm looking to short the midcap index and/or the small cap index. That way my position will be somewhat protected in the event that FANG(Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) or NOSH(Nike, O'Reilly, Starbucks, and Home Depot) go crazy on the upside for whatever reason. How do you plan on playing the next couple of months in this market?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15271498462402648765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80655609210226392402016-03-01T17:49:15.234-08:002016-03-01T17:49:15.234-08:00Getting close. A little more risk on mean reversio...Getting close. A little more risk on mean reversion in the high beta stuff and then kaboom before April. Thoughts? Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-66111264151501409292016-03-01T15:05:10.402-08:002016-03-01T15:05:10.402-08:00OK, pull up gmail, do a quick search on my trash f...OK, pull up gmail, do a quick search on my <b>trash</b> folder, and ...<br /><br /><i>Feb 19 (11 days ago)<br /><br />to me <br />This message has been deleted. Restore message<br />scott has left a new comment on your post "The bearish case": <br /><br />when will you get a clue? I went short yesterday 65%.</i><br /><br />I usually don't read these, but this one I noticed as it slipped through the ether on its way to /dev/null.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-16234836081676343442016-03-01T06:49:28.159-08:002016-03-01T06:49:28.159-08:00It's looking like the guts of the downturn wil...It's looking like the guts of the downturn will be in the fall. Just in time for the election! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54210336752046060002016-03-01T06:44:51.500-08:002016-03-01T06:44:51.500-08:00About the big picture: charts of some other instru...About the big picture: charts of some other instruments suggests that the expected Big Reset will not be done just so easily. <br />I admit that cross-referencing markets and charts has a bit of a voodoo in it, but if it works then the expected fall (if it comes,: if it comes now) will be just the 'C' of a BIG fourth wave. <br /><br />So: down to the 500 (can be higher in case it's a running, not an expanding flat)(a year or so), up again to the 2k(3-5 years, maybe), then a slow and painful corrective down to the 500 again. <br /><br />Just enough volatility to raise my pension funds a bit... When it's done I'll be exactly in that age.<br /> Deprivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242885439171223112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-78406861654947911352016-03-01T05:55:32.846-08:002016-03-01T05:55:32.846-08:00Of course it goes without saying that a drop down ...Of course it goes without saying that a drop down to 1500 this Spring will do profound damage to the market and to the <i>social mood</i> here in the America.<br /><br />Consumer spending will dry up overnight. A formal recession will be imminent.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.com