Sunday, January 6, 2019

A triangle would work well here

We have overshot the .382 retrace of the big drop from 2800 SPX, but this bounce has done the important work of kneecapping the $VIX. 

A bear would want to see it back off and resolve as a triangle into the FOMC at the end of the month.  We can still find our way back to 2520 in a sensible way, preferably with a $VIX of 18 or lower.

The break from the triangle would be violent, potentially even more steep than what we are counting as the third wave.  But it would mark a climax in the selling that would then reverse in a stronger and more sustained retrace.

At some point this year the real damage is done.

SPX daily