Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Higher then lower then higher

The channel is steeper than thought and has its origin at 2594 SPX in May.  The 1.382 fib extension of this pullback from the 2872 is 2980 SPX, a level we could reach at the beginning of October.

$IRX indicating the September hike.  Here's the steeper channel and updated count.

Strangely enough, everything still points towards the same target next March, when everyone will be begging the Fed to lay down some serious loose policy again. 

The Fed will oblige them, it will have no choice.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Five waves down

/ES is perky tonight on China trade delegation news, and I may be the only sane person who sees five clean waves off the top and a 50% retrace in the works.

... Millennials ...

IMO the big test comes at 2780 on the S&P, with an instant 200 pt free-fall when we fail it.

/ES hourly ending-diagonal count

Friday, August 10, 2018

Still so close to new highs

When we bounced off a channel support late in today's session, I noticed how we may still put in that so-far elusive new high on the S&P 500. 

And it may be by a single point, après quoi, le déluge.

S&P 500 hourly, ending-diagonal from the 2553 level

What's really bothering me is what may be shaping up to happen in the wake of the November elections.  I won't talk of it again until the waves leading up to it start falling into place, but I am already very worried for our nation.

Sunday, August 5, 2018

New ATHs this week ... and then?

S&P 500 suggesting 2890 by Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday we have PPI and CPI, expect them to come in scorching hot.

+50 bps in September?

SPX daily - linear scale