Now it looks like the S&P 500 is going parabolic again.
Next week's FOMC happens to fall on a New Moon. We're less than 4% away from making new all-time highs on the index -- we could easily make it there by mid-session next Wednesday.
An FOMC can give us a reversal without gaps. The February decline left giant holes in the chart, as well as an excessive RSI. This parabolic needs to make a marginal new high, fill the existing gaps, while putting in a lower, divergent RSI.
$IRX is only 10 bps from glory and another .25 hike, maybe the one to break the camel's back.
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| SPX daily 06-06 |
$TSLA has finally triggered its short-squeeze, too. It won't end until everyone has covered.
ReplyDeleteKevin, do you have a target in mind for the Nasdaq (and your position in QQQ)?
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ReplyDeleteChannel on S&P suggests ~2830 into FOMC, or maybe even we pop as high as 2850s to close that last gap.
ReplyDelete/me checks chart
ReplyDeletecurve as drawn still intact -- blow-off potential to 2880/FOMC still there
come on, animal spirits! teh growth and good times!
Household wealth tops $100 trillion for first time
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/household-wealth-tops-100-trillion-for-first-time-2018-06-07
"Americans net worth to disposable income, at 682.6%, is near the highest level in history, while debt service payments as a percentage of household income are way below bubble-era levels."
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete2740-60 resistance
ReplyDeletewrong!
Watch Bitcoin.
ReplyDeleteYes.
ReplyDeleteThe crypto bourse it at risk of a dramatic collapse.
Which is entirely appropriate, and hilarious.
Great tweet. Love all the BTC bag holders giving him shit. We'll see how cocky they are tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehugh, you got a twice in a lifetime opportunity --uvxy under 10.00 again.
ReplyDeleteI am tempted. Waiting to see how the next few days play out.
ReplyDeletethink that'll turn out to be a good move hugh. you should be able to get it lower. if i remember you crushed it last time you bought it. good luck
ReplyDeletegiven the outcome of tonights meeting we could easily see a 300 pt dow jones day tomorrow
nas & russell hitting new ath's with the s&p only less than 3% away. both proving to be good indicators of where the overall mkts are heading. possible small pullback before q2 earnings start rolling in in about 3 weeks
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ReplyDeletewonder if armstrong updated his recent take......
ReplyDeleteBlogger Kevin Wilde said...
Martin Armstrong also looking for further corrective into April and May - panic cycle - with a May new low meaning the correction lasts till July.
April 5, 2018 at 3:25 PM
Mixed bag of indicators, but XLF looking pretty weak.
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ReplyDeleteyeah pretty slow day hugh. however the stock market will be much higher by year end. the 2nd half i feel is going to be a really good one. it's hard to find any negatives in the leading economic indicators and the fundamentals continue to strengthen. the market can't ignore or shrug off the fundamentals. we'll see double digit gains again this year. s&p will go past 3,000 and onto 4,000 in about 3 years. next chance for a crash (the 10% variety) is about sometime in 2021/22 or so based on 60+ years history of the stock market dropping more than 10% on average once every 4 years.
ReplyDeletethe dow jones and s&p are continuing to follow the russell & nasdaq to new all time record highs.
the longest bull market in history keeps getting longer : )
Reminder that Caldero totally blew the 2015/16 bear market. He was wildly bullish heading into 16, then changed his long term outlook to bearish right near the bottom.
ReplyDeleteLong term bullish November 2015 > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/monday-update-481/
Long term bearish January 2016 > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/01/30/weekend-update-537/
New Moon today.
ReplyDeleteMassive key-reversal day today?
Support @1810 ...
i don't think we'll see any reversals cg. the market cannot ignore the strong fundamentals and economic climate. we could get a 3-4% pullback before q2 earnings come rolling in though.
ReplyDeleteagain we see new all time record highs with the nasdaq and russell. soon the s&p and dow jones will follow.
this bull market (longest in history) is still in the top of the 6th with no outs :)
dow 40k before it's all said and done.
You guys watching NYMO?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO
Move along folks, nothing to see here.
ReplyDeletehttps://ycharts.com/indicators/210_year_treasury_yield_spread
The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits drops to 45-year low
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-edge-up-3000-to-229000-2018-01-18
U.S. retail sales surge in May; weekly jobless claims fall
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-retail-sales-surge-in-may-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-idUSKBN1JA1N8
the economic news just keeps getting better supporting the
strongest economy in decades only getting stronger. no way we could support an infrastructure program---not enough employees and quite honestly the economy doesn't need any stimulation. the concern should be an overheating economy. as long as the fed continues to stay ahead of the curve we should be good to go.
this bull market is going to go into extra innings. : )
nas & russell new all time record highs once again.
ReplyDeletethe nas is now over 900 points above the nov/2017 6850 top. and only 45 points from my original year end target. revised it in feb to 8000 which is looking pretty good
I wonder if the Nasdaq has a couple more days to go to put in a top. Perhaps on Monday.
ReplyDeleteAAPL will lead the way.
ReplyDeleteCopper heading under 3 soon?
ReplyDeletegood call hugh! aapl nas rus all green for now russell is an animal hitting yet another all time record along with the ndx
ReplyDeletestill think we get one more small pull back before q2 earnings come rolling in
Leading diagonal complete now off the 2791 high?
ReplyDeleteNow we're just waiting for an acceleration event and a panic point of recognition.
last time copper was under 3.00 was about 340 s&p points ago. that was last june.
ReplyDeletebullish sign?
Mkt looks heaviest it has looked in some time. Can not square that with small cap and, to an even greater extent, micro cap outperformance. Maybe we get a mini washout and then new highs.
ReplyDeleteMcHugh sez confirmed Hindenburg Omen today.
ReplyDeleteI say we're about to break the 2-4 trendline off the April lows.
hopefully the bears can deliver today. yesterday the dow gained over 150 after the open. would like to see 2-3% come off before q2 earnings start rolling in. margin time again! c'mon bears show us what you got lol
ReplyDeleteMight want to wait a couple of months to BTFD.
ReplyDeletewaiting for the pre-earnings dip to jump in with a margin trade. over the past 9+ years during earnings season stocks most always go up. given the strength of both the leading economic indicators and a strong consumer (with extra money given the tax cuts) and corporate outlook i just can't see q2 earnings disappointing the least. i'll be in and out fairly quick (maybe 2-3 weeks). would like to see s&p dip to around 2700 if possible to get interested
ReplyDeleteand the btfd has never failed in 9+ years : )