The colder weather always brings the bums into the trains. I'm surprised they're actually on the seats and not under them. The sleeping ones don't worry me too much. It's the ones foaming at the mouth, screaming about Satan or the FBI that freak me out.
I had to scramble for a seat in the back; the entire bus was packed like this. I think King County Metro lets these people ride all night, back and forth to West Seattle.
I was heading to work really early -- a 3 a.m. bus.
As the reality of the stupidly desperate DD Dow merger settles in today people will start to get a sense of how ridiculously overpriced all assets are and how little liquidity exists in relation to debt service.
Great call Scott. I just can't see this as a true top though. The mom and pop crowd are very complacent, but they aren't exactly bullish. It seems like we need to get the majority on fire again before a proper top.
/ES weakness has correlated strongly now with $USD weakness. I don't see why a hike next week would not send the $USD straight up, with carry-currencies like JPY going to new lows, and buy programs running like mad. Speculators who had shorted ahead of the FOMC on a hike call would also be covering.
Draw a channel from the 2020 and 2116 highs on SPX, to the 1871 low. We're still in wave 4 country.
A hike next week could actually rally us sharply through EOY.
The colder weather always brings the bums into the trains. I'm surprised they're actually on the seats and not under them. The sleeping ones don't worry me too much. It's the ones foaming at the mouth, screaming about Satan or the FBI that freak me out.
ReplyDeleteI had to scramble for a seat in the back; the entire bus was packed like this. I think King County Metro lets these people ride all night, back and forth to West Seattle.
ReplyDeleteI was heading to work really early -- a 3 a.m. bus.
And we have a golden cross pending on the 50 and 200 DMA.
ReplyDeleteThe 50 already crossed the 100.
This is it folks, get the popcorn ready.
ReplyDeleteAs the reality of the stupidly desperate DD Dow merger settles in today people will start to get a sense of how ridiculously overpriced all assets are and how little liquidity exists in relation to debt service.
ReplyDeleteThe "I paid what for that" moment is here...
Hugh, prepare to be not only disappointed, BUT RATTLED...lol
ReplyDeleteHow much popcorn did you pop Hugh?
ReplyDeleteU.S. stocks soar on DuPont-Dow Chemical merger talk, oil rally
ReplyDeleteMarketWatch - 1 hour ago
lol - STOCKS SOAR! FAA should really look into the maintenance schedule on those high fliers.
man o man this is all about stuffing the indexes with ringers.
do you know how dramatic this reversal really is since DD is still up over 12% and Dow Chem up over 10%!
Ha! Thankfully I didn't buy any popcorn yet! Craziest I've seen the market in years, fun to watch.
ReplyDeleteso are you just a fantasy footballer or do you actually have skin in the game?
ReplyDelete401K over 80% cash for most of 2015, so not too much skin. I missed some of the earlier uptrend, but I'm fine with it.
ReplyDeleteAll that matters at the moment is which way the obvious triangle on the SPX is pointed.
ReplyDeleteIf up, we get a surge, possibly to new (if brief) highs. If down, an acceleration event.
I think whatever triangle you are seeing is a mirage...
ReplyDeletetime to smell the burning bids...
the data has been screaming this move and hope and magical thinking are all that have postponed it this far.
ReplyDeleteI've listed most all the evidence. The links are still active..
Great call Scott. I just can't see this as a true top though. The mom and pop crowd are very complacent, but they aren't exactly bullish. It seems like we need to get the majority on fire again before a proper top.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHugh, how can you say this when you are 80% cash? Sentiment is a BS indicator, like looking at skyscrapers or magazine covers! lol
ReplyDeleteAgain I implore people to LOOK AT THE DATA! it's all right there.
Oh I agree we're close, I've just never seen a major top set up this way. Not saying it can't happen.
ReplyDelete2007/8
ReplyDeletehttps://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/23008729843/in/dateposted-public/
now
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2013-04-30&en=2015-12-09&&id=p13325803079&a=427965546
so? look pretty close to me
http://unemploymentdata.com/employment/oil-jobs-lost-250000-and-counting-texas-likely-to-see-massive-layoffs-soon/
ReplyDeleteHugh I posted the employment chart several days ago. Perceived (not actual) peak employment means market top...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24%24EMPLOY&p=M&st=1999-01-13&en=2015-12-04&id=p27705900349&a=435565078
Cover for the Fed not to raise yet again. How convenient.
ReplyDeleteIt's a little different from that, Hugh.
ReplyDelete/ES weakness has correlated strongly now with $USD weakness. I don't see why a hike next week would not send the $USD straight up, with carry-currencies like JPY going to new lows, and buy programs running like mad. Speculators who had shorted ahead of the FOMC on a hike call would also be covering.
Draw a channel from the 2020 and 2116 highs on SPX, to the 1871 low. We're still in wave 4 country.
A hike next week could actually rally us sharply through EOY.
Here is another count for the Domed House - has peak projected for May 16
ReplyDeletehttp://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2015/12/stock-market-update-and-some-lindsay.html
Sooo tedious.
ReplyDelete