Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Charts 07-30: Still waiting for the break

It took some time to work our way out of the channel we have been in since April -- dark blue on the chart.  Now we need to see some selling -- 1925 by Friday would get us on track.

I had been really interested in the 7/16 "major" Bradley turn window.  Bob McHugh had one of his "phi mate" turns, which he calculates from time relationships of the significant highs and lows since the 2000 highs on the Dow, scheduled for 7/17.  The Dow made its all-time nominal high on 7/17, but we have not had a hard reaction -- yet.

Instead, the divergences are building up, which you can especially see on the McClellan.  At the all-time market highs on the SPX, the McClellan Oscillator was logging very negative readings, a flashing red light.  So we're still waiting for the break.

SPX 07-30

Monday, July 21, 2014

Charts 07-21 a.m.: Outlook unchanged

Haven't posted in a while, because my analysis is unchanged.  I still want to see SPX 1925 this week for point "24" on the green 3PDH, and then a rally into July FOMC and the next GDP number.

Good luck to all (bears).  I sketched this at EOD Friday.

SPX 07-18

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Chart 07-08: Gott mit uns

The mighty German victory today in the World Cup semifinal actually foreshadows the future of the BRICs -- sneaky how the financiers pull this off -- but tonight we can cheer them for a fine show of sport.  I'd like to see them face their neighbors, those serious guys in orange.

It's all a clever dress rehearsal for the end of the USA-UK financial domination of the ROW, a long cycle that has run its course.

We wish both the Germans and the Dutch well in the days ahead.

Last week I made a final visit to Wessel & Lieberman books in Pioneer Square to pick up the ed of Rousseau I have had on my mind for a long time.  It's gorgeous of course, and now safe here with me.

J-J Rousseau Confessions, 1928 Brentano ed, tr. Mallory 

They are shutting down and are liquidating the remaining books, including their online store.  They will be missed.

I found a particularly nice solid wood bookcase at the Value Village thrift store in my neighborhood, a real score for a mere $20.  A $3 coupon from an item donation made it even cheaper.  I stocked it with a slew of good children's books, particularly heavy in the Grosset & Dunlap.

Children's library of classics and sci-fi

This is part of a much larger library of books to get my kids through their teenage years.  They are just now starting to understand how this is theirs to explore and enjoy, what a fine thing it is to be surrounded by books.  They get it.

In the markets, at this point we are just on-hold, waiting for the Bradley model turn date next week.  The current channel in SPX should take us up somewhere between 1990 and 2000 -- they simply have to take a shot at it, right?

SPX 07-08

There are plenty of data out next week, including (for what it's worth) Chinese GDP and industrial data, and, of course, U.S. earnings soon.

I'm still on-board for the "double-nested Three Peaks and a Domed House" model.  One theory I am proposing with these charts is that -- finally -- FOMC releases may start being profoundly market-negative events, as continued tapering and eventually a rate hike (April 2015?) do their work.

SPX 07-08 1Y

After January, a relief rally into the end of April.

SPX 07-08 5Y

UVXY bottoms around $20 next week?

UVXY 07-08 6M

Nothing much to do IMO until we are closer to the turn, complete a wave up, and maybe even make that low on the VIX and her ETFs.