I swear one of these mornings we are going to wake up to a 30% dislocation in the Yen, and it will fuel panic and horror instead of the fun carry trade good times. But not yet.
By closing below 1951, we officially have a 3%+ "correction". That means that the next all-time closing highs (assuming they do not follow the same sequence of dips 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% that led up to the last ATH) along the way, become candidate all time closing highs that can lead to 20% + declines in the S&P 500. Follow that???
The only trailing sequence of 3-5 and 5%+ of declines that occur immediately before an ATH that has never led to a 20% + decline from said ATH is the following (5% +, 3-5%, 3-5%). That exact sequence led up to the last ATH. If we were to make a new ATH from here, the trailing sequence would become 3-5, 3-5, 3-5. That is eligible for a top. So are six others that are eligible for a top. There are (2^3 = 8 such sequences).
It means that according to the conditions of this study, we still need another all time closing high before we can decline more than 20% from our last all time closing high.
Okay, and how reliable is that study compared to the past? And what numbers are we looking at? Would be nice to see what levels you're talking about, numerically.
13 comments:
I swear one of these mornings we are going to wake up to a 30% dislocation in the Yen, and it will fuel panic and horror instead of the fun carry trade good times. But not yet.
It ain't over yet, but it sure is getting ugly. These could just be end of month shenanigans so the close will tell all.
1983.03/1986.84 using current data to end bear/stop loss.
And, agree with what Bicycle said; quite nasty if it plays out so.
Of course, one might consider that having the reserve currency, and the abuses of such privilege, are also major factors of our current situation.
Ultimately, that which can't be supported, won't be.
Wild day! Looks like bears have survived, for now. Values with current data are now 1984.04/1987.25. Hmmmm...
Commodities; that was ugly! Had a nice 56% profit on USO options that got wiped out in short order leading to -4% loss. My turn in the barrel. ;-)
And now our first case of Ebola. We know how much the markets like uncertainty. Limit down tomorrow?
Numbers shaping up nicely. With current data we have: 1987.42/1990.63 with a T1 of 1894.47 and T2 of 1876.20. I'll take it.
By closing below 1951, we officially have a 3%+ "correction". That means that the next all-time closing highs (assuming they do not follow the same sequence of dips 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% that led up to the last ATH) along the way, become candidate all time closing highs that can lead to 20% + declines in the S&P 500. Follow that???
The only trailing sequence of 3-5 and 5%+ of declines that occur immediately before an ATH that has never led to a 20% + decline from said ATH is the following (5% +, 3-5%, 3-5%). That exact sequence led up to the last ATH. If we were to make a new ATH from here, the trailing sequence would become 3-5, 3-5, 3-5. That is eligible for a top. So are six others that are eligible for a top. There are (2^3 = 8 such sequences).
Bryan, that's great. But what does it all mean? Numbers in layman's terms. ;-)
It means that according to the conditions of this study, we still need another all time closing high before we can decline more than 20% from our last all time closing high.
Christian
Any comments on today's decline??
Thanks
Okay, and how reliable is that study compared to the past? And what numbers are we looking at? Would be nice to see what levels you're talking about, numerically.
Hi pb.
I just posted an updated count.
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