Saturday, September 29, 2012

Three Peaks and a Domed House update

Carl Futia posted an update on his 3PDH count.  He still thinks we have a lot more upside ahead.

Here's my 3PDH count, where I am looking for confirmation now that point 23 (the Domed House top) may be in.

Three Peaks and a Domed House 2012

Friday, September 28, 2012

Charts 9-28: The Bearish Option

Oh boy ... we closed right at the intersection of two channels.

A gap down Monday means that the top may be in.  That would mean no 1500+ scenarios, no further blow-off, no top touch of the giant megaphone shape we have been building since 2000.

It could all be over.

The pop to 1474.5 on the QE3 announcement satisfied our requirement for a touch on the weekly and even the monthly upper Bollinger bands on the SPX.  Since then, we've drawn some messy waves, but isn't that typical of the crossed signals we see at tops?  They're not pretty, but they do have a legal E-W count.

The Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern I am tracking suggests that point 23 and the roof of the domed house may be in.

A rollover here could get things moving very quickly, giving us an epic market crash in Spring of 2013 -- SPX 400!

Good luck Monday!

You are here
Deep retraces line us up with SPX 970
C down, a 1.618 extension of the rally

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Charts 9-27

I got the sense late today that the slight retrace from the rally earlier was not complete, that it would either finish at the close, or early in tomorrow's session.

So I re-checked the economic calendar, and noticed that we have two big news drops early tomorrow during RTH: Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment.

Here's what I'm proposing: we'll stall flat or drop a couple of points at the open tomorrow, until the PMI number is out.  If it's great, we will rally, and if it's a big miss, we'll rally anyway.  This mood of inevitability will then carry into the top next week.

If the sketch on the SPX chart actually plays out, it will be a wonder if UVXY can stay above $20.  I show the lower Bollinger on the daily VIX to be about 12.66, so if we were to trigger a buy signal on the VIX, we would need to close a candle down there, followed by a candle back above the band.  A move like that would gut what's left of post-split UVXY -- I hope we get it!

This is a terrific podcast of Dmitri Orlov, which I think every collapse observer should hear.  I am also looking forward to his next book.

In the Blogger stats, I notice the steady string of visits from Costa Rica.  Ahoy, Stoney, hope you are well.

SPX 9-27
20 day

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Charts 9-26: Last call

Today looks like it finished off the wave 4, especially if we count the B wave as a sideways triangle.  /ES is +5.50 tonight, which bodes well for a final 5th wave up going into mid-next week.

The McClellan oscillator could have us bottoming, too.

SPX 9-26
The weekly Bollinger on the SPX is up in the 1470s -- we want to tag it one more time before rolling over.  Here's some more eye-candy from Olympic National Park this past weekend while we wait for a top.

rain forest along the N. Fork Quinault
sulphur shelf
Mt. Olympus south face
Queets River valley
trail-less wilderness

Charts 9-25: Wave 4 winding down

Took a very strenuous 50 mile hike over the weekend, the Skyline primitive trail loop out in Olympic National Park.

Since then, we have just been waiting for the C wave of the 4 we are in to finish up.  I'm looking for it to touch the lower bound on a larger channel formed since July, and for us to have one last 5th wave up into mid-next week.

Finishing the wave 4 by Thursday close would be super.

5-wave C of 4
Final 5th wave ends mid-channel for a top

1st leg down to SPX 970?

The Skyline trail is one of my favorite trails in Olympic, as it visits some very remote and isolated parts of the wilderness.  It's poorly maintained and often dangerously exposed, but it's a great place to seek solitude and macro-fauna in the early fall.  I saw no other hikers on the route.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Charts 9-20: More downside

I think we have a couple more days of this, and that we are actually headed for the 1434-5 area.

Updated count on the current channel, showing the extended W3 and a proposed W5 to the top.

Better looking C-wave count
Then ... we get our turn, and we will watch it carefully to let it tell us where we are, and where we are headed.  Again, the goal is to complete the 3PDH formation by returning to SPX 1266 in time for the December FOMC.

In mid-December, short-interest should be high in anticipation of the fiscal cliff.  Congress and/or the Fed will announce Gramm-Rudman XVII or some other scheme, kicking the can for another 6 weeks and triggering a vicious short-covering rally.

That rally could retrace pretty deep, the .618 is just below SPX 1400.  From there we head straight to 1040, with a final spring 2013 bottom in the SPX 970-980 area (June 2013).

Summer rally ...

Fall 2013 wipeout crash.  SPX to 400.  We will short the tar out of this and then close all accounts, brokerage, bank, credit union, 401(k), punch-card burrito coupons from Taco del Mar, and go plant a 5-acre garden somewhere out on the WA coast.

If you do it, too, maybe we can be neighbors, form the core of the Great Northern Tribe.

This weekend, I'm heading out to the Olympics to hike the Skyline primitive trail, about 50 mi in 2 days.  The last time I hiked this was late-October 2010, in a serious fall storm.  I had a bit of a solo survival epic up there, a real close call.

Skyline Trail, October 24, 2010, nasty conditions

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Charts 9-19: Quick post

Small change on the McClellan today foretells a sharp drop tomorrow, but I think we have one more rally left -- SPX 1480 area?

I was worried that the drop in the dollar might take us down to DX 72 and new all-time highs on the SPX, but now I'm not so sure.  Crude oil is reassuring -- demand destruction out of the Orient.

Looking for this to wrap up in early October.

1 of 1 of C down to 1266 by Dec FOMC

Monday, September 17, 2012

Charts 9-17: Last bastion of the S-T bear count

I'm seeing a lot of alt and revised counts on the E-W boards, double and triple zig-zags, targets of 1500 to 1600, and they may be right.  Even McHugh is revising his Grand Supercycle count (!), although you will need to subscribe to find out the details, as well as a couple of his phi mate turn dates he has coming up.  We love the good Dr. McHugh here in Deflation Land.

Until it's decisively wrecked (tomorrow), I'm sticking with the bearish count based on a micro-count of the last couple of days.  At this point it depends on us rejecting hard off the 50% retrace at 1465 tomorrow.  If we can manage that, the indexes can shed a lot of points in a hurry.

What I'm counting as a W1 has moved sideways quite a bit, setting up a potentially very steep downward channel.  Wave 1 may have already eaten up the time of wave 2!  For now, at least it's a legal micro-count.

SPX (still-)Bearish count
Zoomed out

A quick summary of the Bollinger Bands we've been watching:

SPX daily
SPX weekly
SPX monthly

And here's a nasty male hobo spider I just caught outside.  Welcome to Seattle.  No, wait, it may be a giant house spider, Tegenaria duellica.  

Kill it with fire!

Friday, September 14, 2012

Charts 9-14: Most bearish case

I suspect that we may have had a failed 5th-wave on the blow-off top today, right at the 1470.0 mark.  See the chart for the trumpet-like expanding wedge shape.  Our old friend Lunatic_fringe would dig this one.

There is a New Moon on Sunday night; these often mark tops.  In this most bearish case, I postulate that the Israelis may give up on their neighbor to the east and decide to take care of business.  I certainly support them and send best wishes out to Team David.

The equity markets may just sell off a bit on the news ...

F-16s over Tehran?

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Charts 9-13: About that Bollinger ...

We finally took out that pesky weekly Bollinger at 1448 today, and came about as close to the monthly Bollinger as we did at the 2007 top.  Of course we closed right on top of everything.

So I agree with Daneric tonight that this thing can break down at any moment now, tomorrow or over the weekend with the New Moon.  Maybe $100 crude will greet the markets in the morning.

If we actually do find a top, and start heading down, here's how we could do it in light of the 3PDH I've been stalking.  I make use of existing channel lines and fib relationships, with each successive wave down rolling over on a failure to regain the channel above.

But until we have actual red candles, this is just ... wild speculation.

A fine finish to 3PDH

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Three Peaks and a Domed House point 23?

The decline late today was either a minor wave 2 or the rest of a larger wave 4, labeled on the chart.

Tomorrow, Germany probably gets the go-ahead to fund the European debt ponzi a little longer.  We gap up a few handles, but since the FOMC is the main event this week, the gains are limited -- not a 30-handle /ES day.

If we're going to drop all the way back to 1395 by Friday, for the 3PDH, then I'd like to propose that the Fed news actually gives us the wave 3 of the move.  Wave 1 down would come from a UE report of 400K+ Thursday morning.  Thursday could be a 40-handle selloff.

1395 Friday and I'm crazy enough to buy that dip.

1448 only 15 pts away
Decline to 10/3 and 3PDH labels
C down targets updated for a 1448 top

Monday, September 10, 2012

Charts 9-10: 1448 on deck?

I posted a VIX chart this morning, and we managed to pop enough at the close to cross the channel I drew.  Both SPX and VIX are set up for potential topping / bottoming moves for tomorrow if they each go about 1.618x the length of their respective wave 1s.

If this works out, and we get a higher high, it affects the shapes of the waves that follow, in a good way.

Wave 5 still left?
Little VIX channel
This same I-T pattern shows up on the /6E and /ES charts.  One last topping thrust tomorrow into the German court decision would be great.

Oh, the weekly top Bollinger on the SPX is also at 1448.  The overnight /ES futures are off 4.50 as I post this, so we would need to see something overnight from the Europe open or maybe even from ICSC Store Sales in the morning.

Quick update: VIX 9-10

I like what the ^VIX is doing.  Would be great to see it close below 13 tomorrow, under its own daily Bollinger.

Dive!  Dive!

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Kids' books: Golden Press

We're still busy working on the best children's library we can manage on a budget, using 2nd-hand sources.  Previous posts discussed sets of books, National Geographic, and Grosset & Dunlap.

Now we turn another great publisher, Golden Press.  Every parent knows them for the Little Golden Books, Scuffy the Tugboat and Mister Dog, but I'm interested in the large-format books here.

Well, first you can get many of the Little Golden Books and other work in larger, hardcover collections.  We can plow through a series of these in one sitting.

Golden has published some fine collections of short stories and standards like Hans Christian Andersen.

And their own illustrated editions of other classics.  I have these from Grosset & Dunlap as well.

And on to more advanced subjects, like this pair.

Here's the only one of all of these books that I did not find in a Goodwill or over at Value Village.  I stumbled across this gem at Powell's Books in Portland, OR, and wrapped it up in a Brodart as soon as I got home.

This was a collaboration with LIFE magazine back in the 1960s of a long series they published about the natural world, and Golden printed the youth edition.

Trilobites ... pwned!

There are also excellent books about America's history and natural wonders.

And some fine books with how-to projects, things for kids to do.

Here are instructions for building a floating fucking turtle trap!  We had it great in the 1970s.  This book would be burned today.  Check it out.


A few more large-format Goldens to finish us off.

When I'm in a large Goodwill like the main one south of downtown Seattle, I usually scan the spines of the hundreds of children's books on the shelves, looking primarily at the name of the publisher, not the title of the book itself.  I always stop and look more closely at anything from Golden Press.  I'm off to a tiny start on these.

Herbert Spencer


Friday, September 7, 2012

Charts 9-07: Big week ahead

Hehe, no kidding.  We have a grand opportunity here to put in a top on the rally since March 2009.

Today the tape toyed cruelly with the channel line I drew last night, but we managed not to violate 1440 just yet.  [iii] is about 2.618x the 13pt [i] I have labelled:

1440?  Higher?
Larger view, with a few targets fixed, with 3PDH tags:

Fall from grace

The weekly Bollinger is starting to turn up and away from us -- can we pin it next week?

SPX weekly wit Bollingers

UVXY headed into the 20s if we roach again on the VIX:

VIX daily